TNAG-0293-FCO40-329-Guidelines-for-the-Governor-of-Hong-Kong--Sir-Murray-MacLeho-1971 — Page 32

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at least in the foreseeable future, if China now develops

her external commercial and political relations. With a

few minor exceptions, trade between China and the outside

world already goes direct to Chinese ports without touching

Hong Kong. The development of such trade would, therefore

not 'cut out' Hong Hong as journalists so frequently allege.

On the other hand it might stimulate China's need for

foreign exchange. The sort of things which China sells

for foreign exchange for consumption in Hong Kong are

apparently more easily sold there than in other markets.

So long as this situation persists, Hong Kong's usefulness

to the Chinese will remain. Conversely if this situation

changed we might be in for trouble.

6.

Nevertheless the future is obscure. One cannot

It

interpret Communist Chinese history in economic terms, and

economic considerations can never be conclusive to the

present Chinese government, though for the moment the

tendency is to give them more rather than less weight.

The era of US confrontation of Communism in the Far East

is ending so too may be the era of Chinese isolation.

is not at all clear what the features of the new era will

be, nor what effect these will have on China's willingness

to tolerate a colony on her doorstep - however profitable

its existence may be. I think that all the Hong Kong

government can do about this is to ensure that the

advantages China obtains are maximised and the disadvantages

2.

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