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at least in the foreseeable future, if China now develops
her external commercial and political relations. With a
few minor exceptions, trade between China and the outside
world already goes direct to Chinese ports without touching
Hong Kong. The development of such trade would, therefore
not 'cut out' Hong Hong as journalists so frequently allege.
On the other hand it might stimulate China's need for
foreign exchange. The sort of things which China sells
for foreign exchange for consumption in Hong Kong are
apparently more easily sold there than in other markets.
So long as this situation persists, Hong Kong's usefulness
to the Chinese will remain. Conversely if this situation
changed we might be in for trouble.
6.
Nevertheless the future is obscure. One cannot
It
interpret Communist Chinese history in economic terms, and
economic considerations can never be conclusive to the
present Chinese government, though for the moment the
tendency is to give them more rather than less weight.
The era of US confrontation of Communism in the Far East
is ending so too may be the era of Chinese isolation.
is not at all clear what the features of the new era will
be, nor what effect these will have on China's willingness
to tolerate a colony on her doorstep - however profitable
its existence may be. I think that all the Hong Kong
government can do about this is to ensure that the
advantages China obtains are maximised and the disadvantages
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