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they were not already represented in the security forces as part of the arrangement, they would possess a cast-iron pretext for bringing police or troops in to deal with a difficult or deteriorating situation. They could use their position to limit our withdrawal of persons and assets, to the extent that they considered it necessary to retain "hostages" in order to squeeze the maximum advantage out of us (both before and after our departure). They could manoeuvre us into a position in which we might be forced to
postpone our departure indefinitely for the sake of our hostages. This might, however, prove to be the only way in which we could effect an orderly withdrawal in the face of
uncompromising Chinese hostility and opposition. But it would seem prudent to follow it only if circumstances during the negotiations compel it; to offer it earlier would undoubtedly put irresistible temptatione in their way. It could only be accepted as an overt arrangement at the very end and for a short period, after the public had clearly
recognised that we were on our way out.
72. The fourth course the informal approach with a view to reaching a tacit understanding • seems the only one that may
be open to us in the foreseeable future. The purpose would be to tell the Chinese, in such a way that the authenticity of the information was beyond doubt but the approach could ne denied if the Chinese tried to use it against us, that:-
(a) We acknowledge that Hong Kong must eventually be returned to China and that is is essentially (geographically and ethnically) Chinese.
(b) We ourselves are anxious to effect an orderly
transfer as soon as public opinion in Hong Kong will allow us to.
(c) To this end we will endeavour to avoid doing
anything in Hong Kong to make the transfer more difficult, e.g. by constitutional changes towards representative and more responsible Government.
(a) We seek Chinese co-operation in not alienating
Hong Kong opinion and turning it against a trans- fer in due course, e.g. by violence or agitation.
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/(e)
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