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(c) Pakistan
27. Our ultimate withdrawal from the Far East will not affect our capacity to give air support against a Russian or Chinese invasion. The effect of our withdrawal on our prestige and standing will depend on the way in which the withdrawal is handled; no harm will be done if we withdraw by
agreement and in an orderly nanner.
India and Ceylon
28.
The implications would be the same as for Pakistan.
Hong Kong and the Pacific Territories
29. Our withdrawal from Malaysia and Singapore will inevitably affect confidence in our determination to stay in Hong Kong, but provided that we maintain a reinforcement capability we should be able to deal with major security outbreaks in these territories.
Other countries
30. Although they are not allies, nor have we any fixed commitments towards then, we shall have to consider the reactions of the other non-Communist countries in the area, in particular Japan and Indonesia. The Japanese have a genuine concern for the future stability of the area and they have repeatedly expressed the hope that we will not abandon or materially
decrease our commitments there.
They have an ulterior motive in that they fear that, as cur military presence decreases, there will be increased pressure upon them to contribute either financially or militarily to the general defence of the arca. But basically their concern is genuine and it will be in our own interests to explain our projected changes to then very carefully as the logical outcome of a new politico-military strategy in keeping with the changing political conditions in the area,
31. The Indonesians will have mixed feelings about our plans. On the
one hand it will give them a certain satisfaction to be able to look
forward to the end of the British base in Singapore, which they instinctively regard as a relic of inperialism; but on the other they show a realistic awareness that the countries of East Asia are as yet unable to
secure their own defence without outside help.
32. To both Japan and Indonesia therefore it will be important to avoid giving the impression that our new policies spring from a decreasing British
interest in the area.
33.
The other countries in the area are also concerned with the general
stability of the area, and at the right time we shall have to explain our
decisions at least to some of them.
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