TNAG-0043-FCO40-79-Future-Sovereignty-of-Hong-Kong-Defence-Review-Working-Party-1968 — Page 96

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G.

WITHDRAWAL

47. Hong Kong's geographical position, its preponderantly Chinese population, the artificial nature of its economic and political

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base these factors, coupled with China's declared claims and intentions, indicate that the Colony's future must inevitably lie at some stage within China and that we must give up our position there. We therefore turn to consideration of the circumstances (short of an abrupt military takeover) in which this union with China might come about; the major problems that would arise;

and the prospects of the possibilities open to us to withdraw; our reaching a negotiated solution.

The Circumstances

48.

We might reach an entirely voluntary decision that the best course would be to withdraw. This could be the case in the following situations:-

(a)

The emergence in China of a more moderate regime; is highly unlikely in the near future.

this

(b)

(c)

With or without a changed situation in China as in (a), a swing of substantial proportions in Hong Kong Chinese opinion in favour of rejoining China. This might come about in deteriorating economic conditions in Hong Kong; result of a successful Communist campaign to "cultivate the masses"; or a combination of both. The emergence in

or as a

Hong Kong of a generation that has its roots only in the Colon possibly militates against this; on the other hand, China's growing strength coupled with our disengagement East of Suez may lead in time to a resigned acceptance of the inevitable by most of the Colony's population who will adjust their attitude. accordingly.

A severe economic setback for Hong Kong or period of economic stagnation, with a clear indication that the viability of its

This somewhat artificial economy can no longer be maintained. could occur because of restrictions imposed by importing countries on her trade or (as could be the case any time after 1980) because the economy starts to run down as the expiry of the lease draws nearer and confidence, particularly business confidence, gradually ebbs away.

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