The growth rate in the liong Kong economy necessary to provide for a natural rate of population increase of the order of 21-34 and for a steadily improving standard of living may be difficult to maintain, since it is wholly dependent on growing world markets for the Colony's
exports.
Moreover, as the economic and military strength of China grows, Chinese pressure on the Colony is likely to increase,
26. What initiative do we posseum in bringing the Chinees to negotiations about Hong Kong? At any time China conid
make our position in the Colony impossible. We could
try to withdraw unilaterally but they could force un to the conference table in the end and on their termo.
initiative would seen to be in our hands only to the
extent that i-
(a) the economie value of liong Kong might be 80
so
important to China that they would be praperad to treat with us to preserve this so far as possible after our departure;
(b) the settlement of Hong Kong's rature could be
linked with a desire by China for a detente in
its international reletions,
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