(b) With or without a changed situation in China as
in (a), a swing of substantial proportions in Hong Kong Chinese opinion in favour of re-joinžg
China. This might come about in deteriorating
economic conditions in Hong Kong} or as a
result of a successful Communist campaign to
"cultivate the masses"; or a combination of
both. The emergence in Hong Kong of a
generation that has its roots only in the
Colony possibly militates against this;
the other hand, China's growing strength
coupled with our disengagement East of Buds may
lead in time to a resigned acceptance of the inevitable by most of the Colony's population
who will adjust their attitudes accordingly. (a) A severe economic setback for Hong Kong or
period of economic stagnation, with a clear
indication that the viability of its somewhat
artificial economy can no longer be maintained.
This could occur because of a downturn in world
trade or (as could be the case any time after
1980) because the economy starts to run down as
amiry or the lease drawo nearer and
confidence, particularly business confidence,
gradually obbe away.
We might feel obliged to seek to withdrew following
a period of Chinese pressure (short of military takeover)
which indicated that China had a serious intention to
make our ponition untenable in the Colony (as distinct
from pressure for propaganda purposes or to show
displeasure with British or Hong Kong policies).
pressure might take an economic form, e.g. denial of food and water supplies or might be political, 1.0, open
Such
/ encouragement .**
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