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ttack; it is part of the Maoist creed that "liberation" should be the result of local initiativo, springing from strong indigenous roots, and
should not be imposed from outsido. These inhibitions on a direct Chinese
military attack do not oxclude the possibility of their sonding in military
forces on the protext of rostoring order if the situation in Hong Kong
got completely out of control. Assuming this does not occur, we consider
the most likely Chinese policy over the next fow months will be to encourago
the continuation of subversion within the Colony and to try to improve and
consolidate local Communist organisations.
5. In order to avoid the possibility of prolonged disturbances which would
have vory damaging offocts economically and night ovontually mako our position
untenable, would it be possiblo to negotiate a withdrawal with the Chinose?
It is assumed that no negotiatod withdrawal would bo possible if China had
launched a military attack as negotiations would require a pause in the
fighting which would only bo likely to occur in conditions of stalemate. Such conditions would be inconceivable in view of Chinese overwhelming local
Three military superiority. There are two other types of situation in which
negotiations for such a withdrawal might be contonplated. These are:-*
(a) a situation of stability or relative stability in both
Hong Kong and China during which the British Government
night decide to end the colonial status of Hong Kong;
A situation in which Kwangling broke away from control by Peking;
a situation of such Communist-inspirod confusion in Hong Kong
that it was no longer possible for a British administration
to remain there.
IS! [Taha in cont
(a) is highly unlikely in the near future.
The Cultural Revolution shows
no sign of coming to an end and seems certain to continue for some months at least, So long as it does the campaign against the Hong Kong Government will persist and negotiations on any terms short of capitulation to Chinese demands will be out of the question. The issue of the Chinese ultimatum of 20 August about Hong Kong and the subsequent sacking of the British Mission in Poking and its aftermath demonstrate how uncompromising the Chinads attitude has become and how fruitless negotiations would be in this atmosphoro. It cannot be excluded, however, that situation (b) may arise should some of the regional arcas break away from control by Poking and pass under the leadership of more rational Party or Army groups.
If this
occurred in Kwangtung, the Provinco bordering on Hong Kong, it might be possible to arrange a modus vivendi which would relieve some of the
So far, however, the evidence available shows pressures on tho Colony. that the Army remains in control along the frontier and subject to Headquarters in Poking. Further back, however, in Canton there has been considerable disorder and this could conceivably spread throughout the whole Province. It is, however, more likely that such a situation night
we consider this below. Accordingly, arise after the Cultural Revolution:
at present the only situation on which negotiations scom possible is (c)."
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