TOP SECRET
FOLONIAL
OFFICE
D.
CHINESE INTENTIONS TOWARDS HONG KONG
1.
1
The Chinese Government regard Hong Kong and the New Territories as part of China. This has been repeated in several official statements
during the past few months. It is doubtful whether they see any difference in the position of the ceded areas of Hong Kong and the leased are of the New Territories. The Chinese regard the treaties by which both these arrangements were made as "unequal", as having been forced upon China at a
time of national weakness and hence no longer valid.
க
2. The Chinese Government have nevertheless been prepared to tolerate the
existence of Hong Kong ever since they came to power in 1949. For the reasons outlined in paragraph 9 of Part C above, we cannot be certain to
what extent the Chinese have now altered their policy of tolerating the
status quo. It seems likely that the Chinese have made no fundamental new
policy decisions over Hong Kong but are merely taking ad hoc decisions as
the situation develops. But the cumulative effect of a series of such
decisions has been to create a policy of hostility towards the Hong Kong
Government which it would take some time to reverse even if the present
crisis came to an end. While China remains in turmoil, and while the
Cultural Revolution campaign continues, it is unlikely that this policy of
hostility will alter.
3. The Chinese Government's present maximum aims are apparently to bring
about a Macao-type situation in Hong Kong in which the British would remain
nominally in control but in practice be dependent on Chinese approval for all
important decisions. There are no indications so far in Chinese propaganda,
or in what we know of secret instructions, that the Chinese wish to expel us
from Hong Kong at this stage.
4. The Chinese have so far failed to achieve their presumed objective
of a Macao-type situation. Assuming that they continue their present
hostilo policy, the two methods open to them are either to persevore with the same tactics and try by intensified terrorism and disruption to undermine the
control of the security forces and the administration until they are forced
to make a public gesture of surrender; or to change their policy and take
over the Colony by military force. The Chinese have sufficient troops
within easy reach of Hong Kong to do the latter without much difficulty.
The reasons why the Chinese are unlikely to resort to military force are probably threefold: they would prefer to see Hong Kong remain in British hands for the time being so as to continue to receive economic bencfit from
it; they are afraid to risk nuclear retaliation by the United States or even
the United Kingdon which they might think would follow a direct military
/attack;
TOP SECRET
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.