TNAG-0041-FCO40-77-Future-Sovereignty-of-Hong-Kong-Defence-Review-Working-Party-1967 — Page 158

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HONG KONG

The following is a brief and somewhat

hurried personal appreciation of the position: has been consulted.

C.P.G. Intentions

2.

no one

The CPG's long term aim may be either: -

(a) to take over Hong Kong; or

(b) to humiliate the Government in such a manner as to ensure that in future we are very much more quickly sensitive to CPG pressure; (c) to disengage with as little loss of face as possible.

or

Of these alternatives, (b) seems the most

3.

probable.

4.

5.

But, whatever the aim:-

or

(a) a firm CPG decision may have been taken to press it home with full backing; (b) the policy may be to see what success the local apparatus wins and then exploit it as far as possible, but without full involvement; (c) the local apparatus may merely be out of hand, but cannot be officially renounced or controlled;

or

(a) the CPG may genuinely have thought that we were suddenly becoming hostile, or were worried about our alliances, and that they would be amenable to restraint, reassurances and reason.

or

It is not possible to say which of the above is nearest the truth, but I would hazard the opinion that (b) is marginally the most likely and (d) considerably the least likely.

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