TNAG-0040-FCO40-76-Border-incidents-with-China-1968 — Page 11

Throughout the

last nine months there has been no indication that the

C.C.A. intended to mount any military attack on the

Colony. Indeed intelligence from reliable sources

obtained during confrontation makes it quite clear that

the C.P.G. policy at present is not to attempt to take

over the Colony by force of arms.

A Major Influx of Illegal Immigrants Across the Land Frontier

22.

As mentioned earlier in this paper (paragraph

19) the main factors affecting this possibility revolve

around conditions in Kwangtung Province generally, and

the capability and determination of the C.C.A. to maintain

their present control. The factional fighting, although

obviously a disruptive factor, is less likely to be a

motive for attempting to enter Hong Kong than is the

prospect of a food shortage. The latter may occur either

through natural disasters affecting parts of the province,

or through disruption of transport resulting, for example,

in lack of seed or fertilizer and the general distribution

of staple commodities. The period of greatest danger

will be at the time of harvesting the spring crop, in

June and July this year, when the prospects for the harvest

will be clearer. At present, there is no indication

that fighting or food shortages are likely to be serious

enough to precipitate any mass exodus or that C.C.A.

control is likely to relax. Unless, therefore, there is

a complete breakdown of law and order, mass emigration

across the land frontier is unlikely to occur.

Defeated Factional Elements Seeking Refuge in the Colony

23.

There is a possibility that communist

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