Throughout the
last nine months there has been no indication that the
C.C.A. intended to mount any military attack on the
Colony. Indeed intelligence from reliable sources
obtained during confrontation makes it quite clear that
the C.P.G. policy at present is not to attempt to take
over the Colony by force of arms.
A Major Influx of Illegal Immigrants Across the Land Frontier
22.
As mentioned earlier in this paper (paragraph
19) the main factors affecting this possibility revolve
around conditions in Kwangtung Province generally, and
the capability and determination of the C.C.A. to maintain
their present control. The factional fighting, although
obviously a disruptive factor, is less likely to be a
motive for attempting to enter Hong Kong than is the
prospect of a food shortage. The latter may occur either
through natural disasters affecting parts of the province,
or through disruption of transport resulting, for example,
in lack of seed or fertilizer and the general distribution
of staple commodities. The period of greatest danger
will be at the time of harvesting the spring crop, in
June and July this year, when the prospects for the harvest
will be clearer. At present, there is no indication
that fighting or food shortages are likely to be serious
enough to precipitate any mass exodus or that C.C.A.
control is likely to relax. Unless, therefore, there is
a complete breakdown of law and order, mass emigration
across the land frontier is unlikely to occur.
Defeated Factional Elements Seeking Refuge in the Colony
23.
There is a possibility that communist
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