TNAG-0010-FCO40-46-Kowloon-disturbances-1986 — Page 131

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HONG KONG

Outline of Paper for OPD

146

1.

We have always known that Hong Kong was vulnerable.

But it is valuable to China and we had assumed that it was

in her interests to maintain the status quo. Indeed there

has been evidence in the past that the Central Government

have controlled and restrained the Communists in the territory.

2.

The scene has now changed. Arising out of labour troubles

a major campaign has been amounted in Hong Kong itself linked

with hostile demonstrations in Shanghai and Peking and with

the expulsion of our representative in Shanghai. A loosening of

control by mainland China of the Communists in Hong Kong has

resulted from recent developments in the Cultural Revolution.

The first mass demonstrations in Hong Kong were probably promoted

independently by the Communists there, in an opportunist desire

to make the most of genuine labour unrest. Mainland China had

to react to the situation, and chose to give support to the C.P.G.

in Hong Kong.

3. The unknown factor in the present crisis is how far mainland

China has now decided to go in bringing pressure on HMG, and

how far there are different views there on future policy.

4. The possible interpretations of the Chinese course of action, assuming

that she is now controlling events, appear to be these:

change

(i) China has made no basic policy decision, but is trying

to achieve some propaganda victory as the price for

calling-off the disturbances. Such a propaganda gain could

relate to the presence of American ships and troops from

Vietnam on leave in Hong Kong; or to labour reforms;

to the release from prosecution or imprisonment of the

persons charged with or sentenced for their role in the

riots.

or

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(ii)