SECRET
HONG KONG
Outline of Paper for OPD
146
1.
We have always known that Hong Kong was vulnerable.
But it is valuable to China and we had assumed that it was
in her interests to maintain the status quo. Indeed there
has been evidence in the past that the Central Government
have controlled and restrained the Communists in the territory.
2.
The scene has now changed. Arising out of labour troubles
a major campaign has been amounted in Hong Kong itself linked
with hostile demonstrations in Shanghai and Peking and with
the expulsion of our representative in Shanghai. A loosening of
control by mainland China of the Communists in Hong Kong has
resulted from recent developments in the Cultural Revolution.
The first mass demonstrations in Hong Kong were probably promoted
independently by the Communists there, in an opportunist desire
to make the most of genuine labour unrest. Mainland China had
to react to the situation, and chose to give support to the C.P.G.
in Hong Kong.
3. The unknown factor in the present crisis is how far mainland
China has now decided to go in bringing pressure on HMG, and
how far there are different views there on future policy.
4. The possible interpretations of the Chinese course of action, assuming
that she is now controlling events, appear to be these:
change
(i) China has made no basic policy decision, but is trying
to achieve some propaganda victory as the price for
calling-off the disturbances. Such a propaganda gain could
relate to the presence of American ships and troops from
Vietnam on leave in Hong Kong; or to labour reforms;
to the release from prosecution or imprisonment of the
persons charged with or sentenced for their role in the
riots.
or
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SECRET
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(ii)