1932-07-22 — Page 5

Page

ANALYSIS OF TRADE

PROFITS.

SIR J. STAMP EXAMINES ··

PROBLEM OF MAKING INDEX.

Range of Fluctuation.

HONG KONG DAILY PRESS, FRIDAY, JULY 22, 1932.

EDUCATION ·

HOW CHINESE AUTHORITIES ARE HANDLING PROBLEM.

in 1997 there was a good deal of ton of Primary school teacher,” confusion, lack of responsibility and said Dr. Hstl

Every year we disorganization. Schools were run hold an examination of school ten- by the haien tong and village | chers and register them. In the authorities. Shanghai is now ander promotion of school hygiene we one city government. In 1827 thu | have an expert to take care of that, total annual expenditure an educa- who works in conjunction with the tion was $980,000 for 250 schools health authorities. We hold sum- and matters wors extremely com-

mer sessions for teachers. We have plicated.

185 Primary schools and five Middle Financial Figures.

schools and this number is always

the whole series, showing not only Where an industry is to a consider SHANGHAI AND the relation between any two ad- [able extent in private hands, qr jacent years, but also between any in small units, the published ro separated years in the series. sults of large companies may be wile of the general average. Thus coalmining is about 80 per cent. It is important to note (Six under companies in numbers, but Josiah said) that the Economist”

shout 95 per cent. in proẞts. Cot. samples since 101 chow she changes tou and wool are predominantly in profits after charging-Debenture company-hold, and so are iron and "Statistical examination

of interest, but including rents, etc steel. But building, timber and': trade movements is the convention-while the taxed profits show the al basis of practical discussion of profits before charging Debenture private management. If the large printing are predominantly under |

Owing no doubt to counter at economic questions to-day, at an interest, but after deducing rents. alysis of the Statistics of profits i Moreover, the taxation

sampled tend to be tractions and the heat, there was assessment those with's greatest Buctuations, or only a fair attendance at Shang- rarely available," said Sir Josiah mass of smaller assessments on if the most fluctuating industries hai at the tiffin meeting of the Shanghal 'with a Commissioner at Stamp in his presidential address tail businesses, etc., which do not tend to be over-represented in the Rotary Club last week. Mr. G. W.

COUCHTIG

STATISTICS GIVEN TO

ROTARY CLUB.

to the Royal Statistical Society on vary in fact much year by year, sample, then the sample as a whole Philloo, chairman, requested the sections: 1, Organisation and estab-ration are tried out and passed un,

June 21, the subject of which was and this must reduce the range or "Industrial Profits in the Past violence of variation compared Twinity Years-a Now Index Num with a serica which excludes them Ler,"

almost entirely. But acting in the opposite direction is the fact that

May

will be unrepresentative.

Groups Over-Represented, "I have some knowledge of the re- lative proportions of the profits or

meeting to arise and stand a mo- ment in meditation as a mark of respect for the late Mrs. Yinson Lee, who died last Saturday.

Dr. H. E. Liu introduced the gated tax assessment, and the pro-day, Dr. Paul Hsu Commissioner guest of honour. and speaker of the portion in the Economist' sample

**My intention is to assemble the available material of recent times, and to ascertain what, if anything, be gleaned therefrom, in statistical form, concerning rela

can be obtained from the summaries. tionship with parallel conditions of

From this I should say that the price, employment, output, etc. My

groups substantially over-represent Diference of Period, first object is to attempt to com

ed, in the sample are Breweries, struct an index of profits of the

aeil. Ten and Textiles, while Hotels Ju any known samples of same order as the index of produc-¡counts, the business year ends at and Iron, Cual and Steel are un- most of the other tion of foreign trade and other in many different dates, and in the der-sampled, dices progressivo in time, but also" Economist " series these terminal groups being roughlý of a reason- comparable, after suitable elimina dates are spread throughout the able order.” tion of trend, with the price in year. The weighted average ECT- ds, tha anemployment indes, and minal date for the whole year 1031 similar Dekares nf... movement | samples is about March 6 or i,

1031, which in itself is not a goo about a non-time norm."

"it" for the calendar year 19:30 with which most comparisous have to be made, and which is strictly fitted in other classes of statistics.

the published results of large pub-different industries in their aggre lie concerns in the Economist series have undergone an inevitable smoothing process before they arc actually pablished.

How Far Representative ?

Sir

Rosults Analysed. The Economist," in twi recent issues, after antillysing the defests its own series of tables-the de slation of Debenture interms, ins various terminal dates of accounts

exe-nks a picked sample of 700 companies, es from 1924, eliminat ing trusts and Gnancial companies, uid-in companies, certain rubber companies, and adds back Deten Lure uterent. The results for manu- incuring and mining are:-

The "Economist " Statement.

The only comparable and aggre gated statistics of profit," Sir Jusinh said, "are the assessments | under Schedule D of the income. tax. The chief drawback in their Answering the question, “Is the use is that (1) they, represent trad. Í. Sample Representative?? ing years ending at many differ-{ Josiah said: “It would appear muz dates, and (2) they are thrown | probable that in its separate sec- into three-year averages (up to tins the sample must be quite 11- 1927-26) Both these facts tend to representative, for the numbers in | Kut hide the sharper varintus which the groups are small, and they tend profits 100 100 101 100 01 73 it is our object to analyse,

to take only the largest cos "But we possess n standard Nevertheless, the amount of prost, Vidumes sample record of the quarter to in the sections is sometimes so come at pruikte- quarter, or year to year, muurse on siderable a part of the whole that ton Industrial profits in the Econom¡ the effect of bringing in a mass of ists periodical statement. From small cases could not be very im this index may be constructed † portant unless their trend Pun which express in a common term quite counter to the large Oftes.

Eastern Engineering

AND

Commerce

A monthly journal dedicated to

the promotion of engineering industry and commerce in the

countries of the Eastern Hemisphere.

SUBSCRIPTION 10s. 6d. per annum, post free, to all parts of

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Editorias communications and matter for publication should be addressed to The Editor: 53, Fleet Street, London, E.C.4.

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1094 1027 1928 1929 1930 1931

190 108.8 105.3 111.8 103.4 93 7

Profits

per unit

100 97.5 98 97.5 85 78 The figures for the group ran15- port, distribution and service" are: -1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 100 100 100 110 115 190 100 80

and companies operating over-

gens:-

100 103 107 103 101 95 97

The Economist" does not at tempt to combine them in a general total because of the difficulty of weigising. A straight average of

the three would givet-

1924 1925 1928 1927 1928 1927 1926 300 102.3 30.3 105.8 105.0 108 80

This series, so far as it goes, shows somi resemblance to the aggryate tax results.

Constructing Index.

Sir Josiah Stamp then explain. ed his own txhods of constructing the index, with reference to tables and appendices to the paper in the hands of his audience.

of Education in Greater Shanghai,

who spoke on educational matters.

Dr. Hau said the problem of edu-

cation in Shanghai is unique and It is unique, because Shanghai is the largest city in Chin and the fourth largest city in the world, having a population of over 3,000,000. It has the largest number of schools and the largest number of children of sehool age, which according to the Intest census amount to 70,795.

very complicated

From 1912 up till the establish ment of the Bureau of Education

We certainly desire to know," he said, "the mobility of profits against prices, employment, produc. tion, etc., in the aren in which such nobility exists. We desire to know, too, the change in the profit in centive (which comes on the Ordin ory share capital), and these fac tors would not be wholly supplied by the assessed profits index. On the other hand," the • Economist sample seeing prima facis too live- ly with its bias of large cases and fluctuating industries.” My per sonal feeling is that a combination of the two types will yield us a series giving most satisfaction, for shost purposes, most of the time. I have accordingly combined them pivoted about 1924 (for conpara tive purposes), and not going back prior to 1020. This I regard as the general profit index, comparablo, for example, with the production index, and to be used when the whole return, apart from wage and rents, upon business of all kinds is under consideration.

A Special Changa Indicator." "But for some purposes we need In different type of 'change indien

tor, especially when we have in view the actual incentive to new business and risk-taking. For thit purpose, a series representing the changes in the profit flow, after paying not only Debenture inter est, but also dividends on Prefer enca capital, and unladen by a mass of steady personal earning (as in shopkeeping), is desirable. This special sub-index I have con. structed as follows: the percentag of total net profit actually paid in Preference dividend gives a deduc tion-from-each year's index-figure, and a net series, which is again converted into an index pivoted on 1024 at 100,

"If the two indexes I now offer prove to have any utility to in- vestigators and economists, T pra- pose every July to add the latest year and to ruvise the provisional items in the series in the light of 4he latest material, and to make the resulte public?!!

SHIPBUILDERS,

SHIP REPAIRERS,

BOILER MAKERS,

FORGE MASTERS,

OXY-ACETYLENE AND

ELECTRIC WELDERS,

MECHANICAL AND

ELECTRICAL

ENGINEERS.

In 1997 the City Government of ¦ inervasing. A survoy of school Shanghai established the Municipal children was made in 1030 for the Bureau of Education of Greater encouragement of school athletics. We have established experimental the head.." This bureau bas four schools where now systems, of edu-

lishment of schools; 2, School alen a Normal school for training Economy; 3, Educational research; villago tenchers. For social edu- and, 4, Popular and Social educa-

cation there are 14 ordinary and two central tion. In addition there are also

extension schools, whero newspapers and educational! engineering and health experts.

Since 1927 when the hureau took been the annual expenditure: over all schools the following has 1997/28, 841,000 for administration expenses and 9258,305 for schools; 1828/2, $100,000 for administration $788,000 for schools: 1929/30, total exponditure $1,000,000; 1930/31, total $1,100,000 and 1931/32, total 81,200,000. This represents 20 per cent. of the City's income and efforts are being made to increase it to 25 per cent.

What Bureau is Doing, "With regard to the sort of work we are doing outside administra- tion, for the first two years we had to organise and take over schools, and make a careful selec-

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