XN000022-1991-11-22 — Page 12

11

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 1991

THUS DOMESTIC EXPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW

MARGINAL

TO

A ONLY

INCREASE,

COMPARED BY 0.5% IN REAL TERMS FOR 1991 AS A WHOLE, AS THE EARLIER FORECAST OF 1.5%.

ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVING REGARD TO THE SHARP INCREASES IN OF FIRST THREE QUARTERS, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS EXPORTS FOR 1991 AS A WHOLE IS LIFTED FURTHER FROM 19% TO 25%.

THE

RE-

THE

ACTIVITIES RE-EXPORTS

WITH THE RENEWA OF CHINA'S MOST FAVOURED NATION STATUS IN UNITED STATES, THE FURTHER EXPANSION IN OUTWARD PROCESSING ACROSS THE BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HONG KONG'S INVOLVING CHINA IN BOTH DIRECTIONS.

RE-EXPORTS TO GERMANY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROBUST IN THE COMING MONTHS.

GROWTH

TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UPWARD REVISION IN THE FORECAST

FOR RATE OF RE-EXPORTS AND THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN RETAINED IMPORTS

TERMS OF MEETING DOMESTIC DEMAND, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL IMPORTS OF GOODS IS RAISED FROM 14.6% TO 18.5%.

IN THE LIGHT OF A GREATER DEMAND FOR TRADE-RELATED SERVICES AND A BETTER PERFORMANCE OF THE TOURIST INDUSTRY, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE

TO 7%. IN REAL TERMS OF EXPORTS OF SERVICES IS RAISED FROM 6%

ON IMPORTS

OF

SERVICES,

THE FORECAST GROWTH

RATE IS

KEPT

UNCHANGED AT 8% IN REAL TERMS.

LOCALLY,

EXPENDITURE IS

. PRIVATE CONSUMPTION

FORECAST INCREASE BY 6% IN REAL TERMS, REPRESENTING A FURTHER IMPROVEMENT

THIS REVISION HAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE EARLIER FORECAST OF 5%. BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED OUTTURN SO FAR.

THE

TO FROM

THE

THE DEMAND FOR

OF RESIDENTIAL FLATS REINFORCES TAKE-UP DURABLE GOODS. THE RECENT TREND IN RETAIL SALES IS ALSO ENCOURAGING.

MEANWHILE, EXPENDITURE OF HONG KONG RESIDENTS TRAVELLING ABROAD

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY INCREASE.

THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE OF GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 6% IN REAL TERMS.

EXPENDITURE

FIXED

EQUIPMENT

THE BY

THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF GROSS DOMESTIC CAPITAL FORMATION IS RAISED FROM 7.4% TO 8.5%, MAINLY REFLECTING SHARP INCREASE IN EXPENDITURE ON PLANT, MACHINERY AND BOTH THE PRIVATE AND THE PUBLIC SECTORS.

ON THE OTHER HAND, EXPENDITURE ON BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION LIKELY ΤΟ SHOW A MORE MODERATE INCREASE THAN WAS GIVEN THE CURRENT SLACK IN CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY.

IS

FORECAST EARLIER,

RELATIVELY EARLIER.

AS REGARDS CHANGES IN STOCKS, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS

AMOUNT OF STOCK ACCUMULATION THAN SMALLER

WAS

FOR A ENVISAGED

IN

TAKING ALL THESE COMPONENTS TOGETHER, THE FORECAST GROWTH REAL TERMS OF THE GDP IS KEPT UNCHANGED AT 4%.

RATR

/THE EFFECT