11
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 1991
THUS DOMESTIC EXPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW
MARGINAL
TO
A ONLY
INCREASE,
COMPARED BY 0.5% IN REAL TERMS FOR 1991 AS A WHOLE, AS THE EARLIER FORECAST OF 1.5%.
ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVING REGARD TO THE SHARP INCREASES IN OF FIRST THREE QUARTERS, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS EXPORTS FOR 1991 AS A WHOLE IS LIFTED FURTHER FROM 19% TO 25%.
THE
RE-
THE
ACTIVITIES RE-EXPORTS
WITH THE RENEWA OF CHINA'S MOST FAVOURED NATION STATUS IN UNITED STATES, THE FURTHER EXPANSION IN OUTWARD PROCESSING ACROSS THE BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HONG KONG'S INVOLVING CHINA IN BOTH DIRECTIONS.
RE-EXPORTS TO GERMANY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROBUST IN THE COMING MONTHS.
GROWTH
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UPWARD REVISION IN THE FORECAST
FOR RATE OF RE-EXPORTS AND THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN RETAINED IMPORTS
TERMS OF MEETING DOMESTIC DEMAND, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL IMPORTS OF GOODS IS RAISED FROM 14.6% TO 18.5%.
IN THE LIGHT OF A GREATER DEMAND FOR TRADE-RELATED SERVICES AND A BETTER PERFORMANCE OF THE TOURIST INDUSTRY, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE
TO 7%. IN REAL TERMS OF EXPORTS OF SERVICES IS RAISED FROM 6%
ON IMPORTS
OF
SERVICES,
THE FORECAST GROWTH
RATE IS
KEPT
UNCHANGED AT 8% IN REAL TERMS.
LOCALLY,
EXPENDITURE IS
. PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
FORECAST INCREASE BY 6% IN REAL TERMS, REPRESENTING A FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
THIS REVISION HAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE EARLIER FORECAST OF 5%. BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED OUTTURN SO FAR.
THE
TO FROM
THE
THE DEMAND FOR
OF RESIDENTIAL FLATS REINFORCES TAKE-UP DURABLE GOODS. THE RECENT TREND IN RETAIL SALES IS ALSO ENCOURAGING.
MEANWHILE, EXPENDITURE OF HONG KONG RESIDENTS TRAVELLING ABROAD
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY INCREASE.
THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE OF GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 6% IN REAL TERMS.
EXPENDITURE
FIXED
EQUIPMENT
THE BY
THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF GROSS DOMESTIC CAPITAL FORMATION IS RAISED FROM 7.4% TO 8.5%, MAINLY REFLECTING SHARP INCREASE IN EXPENDITURE ON PLANT, MACHINERY AND BOTH THE PRIVATE AND THE PUBLIC SECTORS.
ON THE OTHER HAND, EXPENDITURE ON BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION LIKELY ΤΟ SHOW A MORE MODERATE INCREASE THAN WAS GIVEN THE CURRENT SLACK IN CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY.
IS
FORECAST EARLIER,
RELATIVELY EARLIER.
AS REGARDS CHANGES IN STOCKS, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
AMOUNT OF STOCK ACCUMULATION THAN SMALLER
WAS
FOR A ENVISAGED
IN
TAKING ALL THESE COMPONENTS TOGETHER, THE FORECAST GROWTH REAL TERMS OF THE GDP IS KEPT UNCHANGED AT 4%.
RATR
/THE EFFECT