XN000022-1989-04-18 — Page 12

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TUESDAY, APRIL 18, 1989

AS FAR AS OR NOT THE

FORECASTING PROBLEM MR SHAM POINTED OUT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE CONCERNED WAS TO FORECAST WHETHER MOST DESTRUCTIVE WINDS NEAR THE EYE OF A TYPHOON WOULD AFFECT A PLACE, AND IF SO WHEN.

A TYPHOON

"THE AVERAGE DIAMETER OF THE EYE OF KILOMETRES AND THE BELT OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AROUND 30 TO 50 KILOMETRES WIDE.

80

IS

ΤΟ 50 THE EYE ANOTHER

CLOSE THE CORE AT THE SAME

HE SAID.

"THIS MEANS THEREFORE WE HAVE TO FORECAST HOW OF ABOUT 150 KILOMETRES IN DIAMETER WILL COME TO US AND TIME WHETHER THERE WOULD BE ANY CHANGE IN ITS INTENSITY,

TO "THE LARGER THE GEOGRAPHICAL AREA YOU WANT CORE TO HIT, FOR EXAMPLE THE GUANGDONG PROVINCE, THERE WILL BE FOR YOUR FORECAST TO BE RIGHT.

FORECAST THIS THE GREATER CHANCE

(ONLY ROUGHLY

"THE SMALLER THE PLACE, SAY HONG KONG KILOMETRES BY 50 KILOMETRES), THE EASIER IT WILL BE FOR CORE TO MISS ALTOGETHER," MR SHAM SAID.

50 THIS TYPHOON

"THE CURRENT WORLD-WIDE STATE-OF-THE-ART IN PREDICTING WHERE

BE IN 24 THE CENTRE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL

HOURS CAN

BE.

ON ROUGHLY THE DISTANCE BETWEEN AVERAGE, 200 KILOMETRES OFF, THAT IS,

KILOMETRES," HERE AND SHANTOU. FOR 48 HOURS, THE AVERAGE ERROR IS 450 HE ADDED.

OF THE

IN SIMPLER TERMS, IF WE WERE TO FORECAST A DIRECT HIT CENTRE OF A TYPHOON IN HONG KONG IN 24 HOURS, THE CENTRE MAY WELL UP SOMEWHERE IN SHANTOU TO OUR EAST, OR WEST OF MACAU TO OUR WEST,

GALE OR HURRICANE FORCE WHICH CASE THE DECISION TO WARN HONG KONG 24 HOURS AHEAD WOULD BE INCORRECT.

10 "THE HOISTING OF THE NO.8 GALE SIGNAL OR THE NO. SIGNAL WOULD HAVE TURNED OUT TO B O HURRICANE

WOULD HAVE SIGNAL

TURNED OUT то EVERYBOBY WOULD HAVE STOPPED WORK, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN A FOR ALL, THE TERRITORY WOULD HAVE LOST A DAY'S PRODUCTIVITY.

BE PREMATURE

AND

THAT THE "ON THE OTHER HAND, IF WE CONSIDERED

IT COULD END UP HIT SHANTOU IN 24 HOURS,

RIGHT OVER EVERYONE UNPREPARED THEREBY CAUSING A LOT OF UNNECESSARY SHAM POINTED OUT.

IN BOTH CASES, HE SAID, THE FORECASTS GIVING RISE

SCENARIOS IN DIFFERENT TOTALLY

HONG KONG WOULD BE "AVERAGELY ACCURATE" BY WORLD STANDARD.

END IN

WINDS IN

HURRICANE

UNNECESSARY. FREE HOLIDAY

TYPHOON WOULD us, CATCHING DAMAGE, MR

ת

то THE RANKED

TWO AS

"THE FORECASTS MAY PERHAPS BE CONSIDERED METEOROLOGICALLY REASONABLE BUT IT WOULD BE

I

POINT OF VIEW,' HE SAID.

TOTALLY

UNACCEPTABLE

FROM

THE PUBLIC'S

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