XN000022-1989-04-18 — Page 11

TUESDAY, APRIL 18, 1989

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MR SHAM POINTED OUT THAT ON AVERAGE

30 TROPICAL CYCLONES

FORMED OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA EACH YEAR, AND OF THESE, ABOUT SIX CAME CLOSE TO THE SOUTH CHINA COAST AND POSED A THREAT TO HONG KONG.

"EVERY FOUR TO FIVE YEARS A MATURE TYPHOON WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO HONG KONG TO CAUSE WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE, I.E. THE NO. 10 SIGNAL," HE SAID.

"IN THE POST-WAR YEARS FROM 1946 TO NOW, WE HAVE HAD 11 YEARS DURING WHICH WE HOISTED THE NO. 10 SIGNAL, HE ADDED.

QUOTING STATISTICS, MR SHAM SAID HONG KONG HAD NOT HAD A DIRECT HIT SINCE TYPHOON ELLEN SIX YEARS AGO.

"YOU MAY WISH TO DRAW YOUR OWN CONCLUSION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL HAVE ONE THIS YEAR,' SAID MR SHAM.

"

OTHER THAN STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT, THERE WERE AS YET NO RELIABLE METHODS TO PREDICT THE YEARLY NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES, LET ALONE WHERE EXACTLY THEY WOULD FORM AND HOW MANY OF THEM WOULD HIT A SMALL PLACE LIKE HONG KONG, HE NOTED.

ALTHOUGH HONG KONG HAD BEEN LUCKY SO FAR IN THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS, EXPERIENCE SHOWED THAT THE LONGER THE TERRITORY STAYED FREE OF TYPHOONS, THE MORE PEOPLE WOULD FORGET HOW DESTRUCTIVE THEY COULD BE, MR SHAM WARNED.

"THERE ARE MORE AND MORE PEOPLE IN HONG KONG, ESPECIALLY NEW-COMERS, WHO MAY NEVER HAVE EXPERIENCED A TYPHOON IN THEIR LIVES BEFORE. PEOPLE THEREFORE TEND TO BE TOO LAX IN TAKING PRECAUTIONS AGAINST DAMAGE, HE SAID,

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"COUPLED BY THE FACT THAT MORE AND MORE DEVELOPMENTS HAVE TAKEN PLACE IN VARIOUS PARTS OF THE TERRITORY, COASTAL AREAS AND OFF-SHORE IN RECENT YEARS, THE DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH HIGHER IF SUFFICIENT ATTENTION IS NOT GIVEN TO THE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE ROYAL OBSERVATORY," HE ADDED.

MR SHAM SAID THE ROYAL OBSERVATORY WOULD KEEP UP THE VIGILANCE AGAINST ANY THREAT FROM A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

"OUR WARNINGS AND ADVICE ON GENERAL PRECAUTIONS WILL BB PROMPTLY BROADCAST то EVERYONE THROUGH RADIO AND TELEVISION OR THROUGH DIRECT MEANS.

AT

"SHOULD ANYONE HAVE ANY SPECIFIC PROBLEMS REGARDING WHAT PRECAUTIONS TO TAKE IN A PARTICULAR SITUATION, WHAT DECISIONS TO MAKE AS REGARDS THEIR WEATHER-AFFECTED OPERATIONS, I AND MY COLLEAGUES THE OBSERVATORY ARE PREPARED AND ALWAYS STAND READY TO GIVE YOU NECESSARY ADVICE," MR SHAM SAID.

THE

/MR SHAM