XN000022-1980-01-24 — Page 17

For one thing, we do not yet know precisely what the position

was at the end of last year in respect of immigration, because so much of

it was illegal. We have some idea from the numbers of identity cards

supplied to those "illegals" who have applied for them. Others have not,

and we may well have to wait for the results of the 1981 census before

getting a reasonably accurate count of our population. The "guessticate"

is that at the end of 1979, 70,000 legal immigrants and 110,000 illegal

immigrants had arrived during the year from China. I do not include the

50,000 odd boat refugees from Vietnam presently here because hopefully-

they will all eventually be resettled elsewhere. Net migration in respect

of countries other than China showed a small loss of some 2,000, leaving a

balance of net migration into Hong Kong of about 178,000. Rather a lot of

people in one year.

The statisticians have got busy on these figures: and I shall

give you just one or two examples of what they have come up with. For

instance our usual rate of natural increase in population is said to have

been approximately 1.2 per cent a rate that most countries would consider very

-

reasonable indeed. But adding in last year's arrivals in total (that is

including our refugees) the rate becomes a staggering 6.1 per cent! Even when the

sums are done without counting the transient 50,000 (and diminishing)

Vietnamese boat refugees, we are still left with the calculation that

our population increased last year by 5.2 per cent. Which, of course, is a lot

more than 1.2 per cent.

A projection was then made to see what would happen if the

experience of 1979 were to be repeated and on-going. A progression based

on the past year's intake calculated ahead, gives figures that become

seemingly fantastic. Starting with the base of a present 5 million

/population.....