For one thing, we do not yet know precisely what the position
was at the end of last year in respect of immigration, because so much of
it was illegal. We have some idea from the numbers of identity cards
supplied to those "illegals" who have applied for them. Others have not,
and we may well have to wait for the results of the 1981 census before
getting a reasonably accurate count of our population. The "guessticate"
is that at the end of 1979, 70,000 legal immigrants and 110,000 illegal
immigrants had arrived during the year from China. I do not include the
50,000 odd boat refugees from Vietnam presently here because hopefully-
they will all eventually be resettled elsewhere. Net migration in respect
of countries other than China showed a small loss of some 2,000, leaving a
balance of net migration into Hong Kong of about 178,000. Rather a lot of
people in one year.
The statisticians have got busy on these figures: and I shall
give you just one or two examples of what they have come up with. For
instance our usual rate of natural increase in population is said to have
been approximately 1.2 per cent a rate that most countries would consider very
-
reasonable indeed. But adding in last year's arrivals in total (that is
including our refugees) the rate becomes a staggering 6.1 per cent! Even when the
sums are done without counting the transient 50,000 (and diminishing)
Vietnamese boat refugees, we are still left with the calculation that
our population increased last year by 5.2 per cent. Which, of course, is a lot
more than 1.2 per cent.
A projection was then made to see what would happen if the
experience of 1979 were to be repeated and on-going. A progression based
on the past year's intake calculated ahead, gives figures that become
seemingly fantastic. Starting with the base of a present 5 million
/population.....