1953-08-06 — Page 9

MESSAGERIES

P.O. Box 13, Queen's Bldg.

M

Cutwards "VIETNAM**

"CAMBODGE"

slomewards

"VIETNAM***

"CAMBODGE"

MARITIMES

Tel: 20651.

M

PASSENGER/Freight servICE

Leaves Marieliien

Rengkung

B-11 Aug

Balled

July

20 Aut.

Leaves Hongkong

Lise Marseille

August Aug.

11 Sept.

>20 Sept.

For

Yokohams

Vin Balgon Saigon

via Maracilies to all Mediterranean de West Africa porta.

via Djibouti to Madagascar..

FREIGHT SERVICE

Leavey

Europe-Sailrd

Europe-Sailed

THE CHINA MAIL, THURSDAY, AUGUST 6, 1953.

After Korea: Estimate Of Outlook

The

The end of the Korean fighting has left a mood of very guarded optimism. “This is not peace," said Genoral Clark, “but a suspension of hostilities."

been

In fact, the Korean war has never fought for victory in the ordinary sense, only to contain aggression within a limited geographical

Outwards

Hongkong

For

"COURBEULLES"

"AURAY"

"IRAQUADDY"

· Antwerp← I KOZL,

2 kept 23/20 Bapt. 12/14 Oct.

Japan Japan Здран

Homewarda

Jongkong

For

"MEKONG”

area.

#

"COURSEULLES**

"AURAY"

"IRAQUADDY"

Leaves

-Krelung-20 Aug.

22 Aug.

· · Keelung-4 October October

-Keelung-26 Oct.

Krelung 7 Nov.

28 Ocl.

#Nov.

† Balgon, Marseilles, Algiers, Oran, Tanglers, Casablanca,

Le Havre, Antwerp, Rotterdam & Dunkirk

Subject to change without notice.

*

EVERETT LINES

EVERETT ORIENT LINE

Fast regular, freight-refrigerator-passenger service to Korca, Japan, Philippines, Indo- China, Siam, Malaya, Rangoon, Calcutta and Chittagong.

"NOREVERETT“

Arrives

Salle

Aug. 18 from Singapore. Aug. 19 for, Kobe

"REBEVERETT”.

Arrives Sull's

Yokoliainn,

Aug. 28 from Manila. Aug. 20 fox Singapore. Penang. Rangoon & Calcuíto,

(Accepling, cargo for transbipment Kobo/unan and Kobe/Okinawa)

EVERETT STAR LINE

Fast regular freight-refrigerator-passenger service to Korea, Japan, Philippines, Indo- China, Siam, Malaya, Colombo, Bombay, Karachi and Persian Gulf Ports.

"STAR ARCTURUS”

Arrives Salls

Aug. 10 from Japan, Aug. 10 for Manila.

"STAR ALCYONE”

Arrives Soils

Aug. 21 from Singapore.

Aug. 22 for Noha & Japan.

(Accopliug cargo for transhipment Kabe/Puson and Kobe/Okinawa)

EVERETT STEAMSHIP CORPORATION SIA Queen's Building, Tolophono 31206.- Chinese Department: Telephone 28293.

Australian HONGKONG

"Disbalance"

With Japan

was

Canberra, Aug. 5.

on a

The Australian Commerce and Agriculture Minister, Mr Jolin NcEwen, sald today that Aus- tralia was studying her "tremen dous disbalance of trade" with Japan.

commenting statement at the Farmers and Settlers conference in Sydney that Japan might have to make heavy cuis in lie wool purchases from Australia because of its shortage of sterling.

(Japanese Embassy officials In June to have reported predicted an early

conference with Australia 10 discuss Japan's

difficulties. exchange The Chairman of the Australian Wool Growers Association, Mr R.D. Bakewell, urged

curly re-

Wero

SHARE MARKET

(From Our Correspondent)

Business done on the Stock Exchange this morning wmounted to $585,501. Noon quotations and the morning's transactions:- SHARES BUYERS SELLERS FALES

DANKS

HK Bank XD

East Asia

INSURANCES

(baton Union IK Fire

1533 12 1530

150

· [

243

0021

450

SHIPPING Waterbost

Asla Nav. DOCKS..ETC.

Dock

21.00 Provident .11.0

Wheelock

17.40

1.50

400 11.70

12 600

34.70

OK

1000

1000

859

HK Hotel 105 Land

S'hat Land

Train

lef from import restrictions LAND, ETC. from Japan which, he said, bought 15 times more goods than she sold to Australia during the first nine months of last year). UTILITIES

Mr McEwen sald today that it was important for Australia to maintain trade with Japan, which he understood had re- cently fallen from first to second. place in the list of the Domin ion's wool customers.-Reuter.

LONDON TIN

MARKET

London, Aug. 5. The tin market was quiet with spot tin marked down £14 and three months kiri remained un cheaged,

Turdver

SONI

250 tons of

which five tons' mere for cash,

closing pelees Were

follows:-

Spot tin, buyers

680

502

682

Star TerrY

.. 7.00 7.90 1000 @ 8.50 .. 0015 0111⁄2 1000 u 001)

2001 1.45 1.5232

24.00 24.00 2500 24.70

124 125

C. Light (0) 12.20 32,40 8000 120

It is not to be wondered at, therefore, that it leaves behind local politient problems as con- fused and apparently Insoluble as they were three years ago. It is these that the political conference will have to face.

U.S.:

Gloomy Business Prospects In

Prophecies Of Gloom

Views In

Bangkok

Bangkok, Aug. 5, The Korean truce has had a drastic effect on the Thal textile market as local fears increased over the prospect of increased competition from Japanese, textile manu- facturers.

Trade

revere experts predlet more competition and lower

prices from Japanese factorles as they turn from supplying the United Nations forces Korea to the production civilian goods. not

means follow that an economic recession will be precipitated.

And, in any case, it is yet decided whether they will do so, or, if they do, how big the reduction will be.

argument that the The

ent in international re- provement Nevertheless, the mere cessa-iations nov

now being achieved tion of the hot war marks an the result of Western strength achievement whose significance is compelling. is likely to grow as the per- spective lengthens.

NEED STILL THERE

E

Though some of its emotional force may now be lost and though In Korea, for the first time the agitation for some relief will since international co-operation no doubt grow, the heads of the has been seriously attempted, Governments which have tu agression has been inet by take the decisions have so far force and stopped in Its tracks, shown no sign of changing their

{policies, Because of this. whatever happens now, the world will never, be quite the same again, certainly never the same as it In fact, the expenditure at was in the 1930s, Moreover, Sghting was a very small -part the end of the fighting, because of the total military cx- it obviously ends a paragraph pendure; and the need for of post-war history. if not akeeping troops abroad, especially. chapter, has already provoked in Korea, will not lessen.

Even if changes in speculation about the future,

military especially the economie future. }expenditure, were decided

on What economie changes are now, they could not go Into for a period that is

likely to flow from the Korean effect in years rather than in

Iruce?

PSYCHOLOGY

inanmured

months; and in this time there woul be ample opportunity for

In

of

a

According to the English- language Bangkok Post, market has shown that survey of the Thai textile sales have dwindled to virtually nothing..

Meanwhile, there has also been pessimiam

among Thal food exporters, who fear. the reopening of the Chinese main- land BS A SOUTCO of foreign Биррlу.

Phyn Mahal Sawarn, former Commerce Minister and pre- sent managing director of a large export Drm, called upon the government to take steps to force down local food prices so that exporters will be able to sell at competitive prices.

overseas sales

TAKING STEPS

The former Minister expectext Japan to turn to Manchuria and

Apparently

Proved False

{BY SYDNEY S. CAMPELL, REUTER'S FINANCIAL EDITOR) Some competent British observers are bemoaning the U.S. business outlook. Their reasoning in a nutshell is as follows:

Productive capacity is about $25 billion bigger than a year ago. Unless the Americans spend $25 billion more than last year, there will be excessive savings, some capacity will be unused, and full employment will disappear.

The factors which have been sustaining full employment so far are unreliable.

The tax-aided defence and U.S. Treasury

and their sup- ; defence-supporting projects are posedly flexible and expert approaching completion.

Federal Reserve. In fact the

Rally On NY Stock Exchange

The backlog of civilian invest.Treasury and the Fett appear to ment projects which have been the Treasury team

be working in great harmony; held up by the defence

extraordin Pro arlly gramme is "only" abouls

strong, and in recent weeks, $13 billion, which is not enough to doc

$0 for from proving keep things going since it will flexible to for beyond) the veTEC doctrinaire, has proved itself not necessarily come fuske any of inconsistency. one year.

Consistency being the bugbear of fools, it sparked n

On

New York, Aug; 5. A run-up in rail and oil stocks late rally in the

The past year's Inflation consumer credit will bring it has proved anything but foolish. stock market today that pushed meinests: Incomer and spending the contrary, it has promptly stocks up by which have been augmented by ing wind.

rimuned its salls to the prevall average after early realising.

a few cents on incurring this debt will be de-

In picted by repaying the

the mid-July week when the instal

The advance was accompanied out in reserve ratios ments on it.

(effective by a sharp upturn in Activity July 0) The "normal"

added about $000 million which boosted the total sales for Increase in spending on non-durables and banks, the authorities did not yesterday's one million. Earlier to the reserves of the big elly the day 1,000,000 shares from services is only about $5 billion mop up any of the money by in the day, when pr

profit-taking

₤1

year.

The budget, which ought to reselling any of their big recent

was cutting He said Thalland faced the have been expansionist so as to open-market purchases of bills. Ingged at the smallest level in prospect of losing its soya bean enlarge spending, la instead demore in that wock, since $900 today was much like that yes- Naturally they did pot buy any more than a week. The inte riso as well as the signed to cut total spending by markel for other perishable about $3 billion in the coming million is, in all conscience, a terday but more effective. This commodities produced by Com-year.

big enough injection into the with increased activity on the munist China.

credit base for one week. But as upside were listed by market- PURE NONSENSE? they did not resell any, the nett men as indications of the mar

excess reserves of the member ket's underlying strength. A business-men's government banks Jumped to which does

to 3941 milion The truce hay been so long seeing that other demand. Vas China as sources of supply for arbitrary balancing of the bud-ings of about shat amount) to terrupted at intervals for con-

not know what is (less

than 3 good for business is intent

months ogo they

Most analysis look for an ex- in negotiation and these

on were plagued with nett borrow-tension of the summer rally in- nego- adequate. tiations have been so often ap- Rehabilitation expenditure is

get instead of real balancing of feather-bed the Treasury's issue solidation, They pointed parently near conclusion that already being Increased, and i

the economy. most of the immediate changes all countries here is ample

Meanwhile, the That Gover-

The

or 24 per only hope is that

cent certificates, that market factors now are ment is taking steps to coun-Federal Reserve, for the which might otherwise have scope for reducing

the Provisionally, one may conclude predominantly favourable with taxation

teract the effects of a trade re-

right that the idea already along with expenditure. This

of deflationary] the growing list of good cara- Congress, for the seal and monetary policy in the ins coesion, it was reliably reported. reasons, and

reports and cheerful hardly be, Ilkely to

Phra Bortphand Yudhakich

wrong oncs, will pull things US. is a mare's nest.Reuter. forecasts the main-stays. round to u depress anyone.

a sufflelent degree of a reporter that measures to halt tax

reflation or inflation. wore to be taken

All this

turn may

be evasion and colicet all taxes due

out to true, but equally I may the government.

turn

Jave

would

been expcoted laken place.

Between the end of. March, for example, and mid-June ( been from every other point of Agonising though they have was in April, that peace first

Dow view, the delays in the truce seemed inimiinent} Jones index of Industrials

gotiations have, in fact, had gistered a fall on Wall Street one good effect.

They have enabled the im

took

the

53

ikese commodities

told

+

He said measures included getting all allens to pay their fees, assuring that shops pay taxes on all sales and making certain that all merchants who have not. paid taxes catch up OD their

arrcors in the near future.

;

in

On

BANK'S VIEWS

Cily

out

hit

Gains in rails ranged to 3%. points in Missouri, Kansas and New York, Aug. 4. Texas, preferred, which moved out to be pompous nonsense. It There are only slight chances up in active trading. Oll gains takes some self-assurance to for a recession in the United ranged to 34 points in Texa from over 200 to under 265; the

looture American businessmen for States this year-if any, sc Pacific Land Trust, but there not same kind of fall, though less mediate economic effects of the

not knowing what is good for cording to the National

were several wide lesses too, pronouneeti,

place

them, In cease-fire to be spread over

considering what

of New York's August they Bank

Barber was down 11⁄2 paints, equities on the London mar-several months, and its more

have made of American Industry Letter. ket; and in the Far East the remote effects to be considered

Mid-Continent ! In comparison

with the industry The

114 points, Inajority of so-called Steels and motors moved par "Korean" commodities, rubber (without haste. In economie

not merely of any

other country bearish influences have beca and tin,

rowly. Copper clocks were have both reacted | affairs, too, the proper note is

but of the rest of the world put exaggerated largely in the now one of guarded optimism.~-

together and

heavily following nanouncement remembering public's mind, it finds. 108 The Financial Times.

thût, within the lifetime of

of lower prices in the industry. the subject of defence Anaconda fell 14 points, Ken than Britain's Industry.

that for a year and a half a cupoint, It is not easy to see why in defence spenting hat been backlog of $13 billion of civilian soen as a prime reason for ex- investment projects should be pecting a recession. It pointed written off as chicken-feed, out that the argument would while budgetary spending cut have more force defence of $3 billion is regarded as dan spending had been built up in gerous deflation.

the last few months to the faint Unless it materialises it will once expected. not be deflationary at all, and

The actual trend, however, there is no certainty that if hath been more early level and will materialise

reductions and economics could There may be smo Incon-hardly be prime-factors: Ja-out sistencies in the

argument.ing defence

SUMU

sharply.

Though there were smail movements in the same direction following the signing

of the armistice, the evidence suggests that these changes run

have alreally pretty well their full course.

The main cause of the Lik "psychological changes after

the fighting in Koren started is now nbsent.

LITTLE SCOPE

The Rubber

Markets

Lendon, Aug. 5. The rubber market was quiet. Prices closed a= follows-- The shock-of-the-news-and No 1-RSS-#pol -

- 107%==% Settlement

the expectation

that prices Business would rise then set off a wave (No 1, ASS, General market,

of buying for stock which add-Estate crepe Aug, thick

bagin

ed fuel to the flames of infla- tion.

Stocks are not high

anywhere.

now

certainly not in America, and unless a big re-.

were expected there is

Chin

1034-18

101.91

215-

2015-21

United Preat. NEW YORK MARKET

New York, Aug. 5, ccasion and a big fall in prices Rubber futures

today closed Je 20 points higher with sales of БТОРС for corresponding six contracts. Traders sald the

destocking movement.

scene

was the expected decline tople now living, it was simbilor i spending, the National City held nocoti 116 and Miami Copper

Adding to the general gloom In Thailand's economic

business by shipping lines as the general decline in world tin, rubber and other commodity prices continued.-Urited Press,

NEW YORK

FOREIGN

EXCHANGES

Canada

New York, Aug. 3.

England-official unomelal 30-day futures 90-day futures

Australis New Zealand

South Afrien Delgium Denmark

France

market was very active once As a matter of fact, even in again. Trade spokesmen were the knowledge that. peace in Korca was likely to be signed prospect that the

ed, generally disappointed over the Government practically all forecasts In

synthetic plants would not be America for the near, future sold before 1955, have recently been optimistic."

Some

Increased buy- expected This is not to say that the

activity might be in the end of fighting in Korea willing not produce any psychological ning on the heels of the re- duced activity lately with prices generally expected to hold stendy, It must always be bered that even now American 234 cents a pound, unchanged Egypt

remem-No. 1 RSS spot was priced at defence expenditure only

from yesterday. counts for about 15 per cent Sept. of the national output, so that Dee.

changes:

the private seator is of decl-March 1054 sive importance.

·

May July Sept.

MORE HOPEFUL

But the probability that there will be no great down- ward movements either markets or in production general is reinforced by

her circumstances.

23.18 23.03 21.30 bid 23.70 bid 22.65 nom, 22.03 nem. United Press.

Argentina Brazil Bolivia

US$1.01-3/12

2.41-11/14

2.69-2.73

2. BG-19/10

2.BOY

2.25

2,30% 2.81-10/10

0.007 .1455

DELZI

2015

0014

.1405

10335

Germany

Holland Italy

Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland

,0200 18:30

.233414

MIDDLE EAST

Futures were

Iron

Irea

2.00%

03123 20212

Turkey

LATIN AMEBIÇA

.0725

.0303

0043

.0001

P1220

1.00

1163

Peru Uniguay

.05.20

Venezuela

2003

FAR EAST

Indip

2113

Pakistan

2044

Ilongkang

1750

dollar) Japan

indonesia Singapore

.0000

(Straite

3230

360 yen to UBJI

-United Press.

in New York Sugar

in

two

When in April world mar- kets first fell because peace seemed likely, the very sharp- nors of the fall provoked some scepticism about its causes.

Is it indeed true that the

ot prosperity

the Western democracies depends on their ormaments intustries?

It was then realised and it

2008. is still true today that though

Tôi thường (N) Ela B50 200 g BH

1000 # 820 2000 8.10 Electric .... 20.7050.00 2100 28.00 Telephone.

3000 # 21.00 INDUSTRIALS

Comert

.... fano

600 18.30 STORES, ETC.

Dairy330m30 500ʼn 22.30

Watson

COTTONS

EWO

23.00

5000 22.10

MISCELLANEOUS

Yangine (0) 6.25 6.00

Yanguzo (19) 0.95 0.05 2009 @ 5.30

**Exchange Rates

Market

Now York, Aug, 0. World sugar futures closed today one to five points higher with sales, of 103 contracts Domestle

was unchanged mugor to 3 points higher with sales of 100 contracts.

Chile Columbia

Mexica

The market broadened to 1,068 issues with 459 higher, 334 lower, and 276 unchanged,

The New York Stock EX- change bond volume was 2.200,- 000, and the American Stock Exchange volume was at 200,000, Dow Jones closing averages:-

30 Industrials

Aug.-4

275.00

105,81

40,88

107.51

05.32

159.40

-United Press.

Farm price supports (to name was unlikely in which

drop by more 20 Rails only one spending sector) are than $3,000,000,000 in the cur 15 Uulitics

so inflationary rent fiscal supposed to be

year (by pretent 63 Stocks as to threaten to bankrupt the inkitentions), the Bank said. 40 Bonds U.S. Treasury eventually, while United Press,

Comm. Futures Prices generod spending hablis are

Index supposed to be deflationary.

HUGE CREDITOR

The propensity of the Ameri. cons to run into debt, as ovidenced by the recent inda- tion of consumer credit, is not easy to reconelle with a fore- cast of their propensity to save excessively,

as has fact, spectacular been the mushrooming of American private debt in post-

In

War

SLUMP IN

COPRA

EXPORTS

Washington, Aug. 6.

- Dividends At Record High

New York, Aug. 4. Copra and cocoakut all ex- Common dividends reached a ports by the Philippines, Indo-record high in the first half of China and Maloga have clumped 1953, the New York sharply this year, according to Exchange has announced. the US Agriculture Department.

Stock

Owners of common shares

period, private holdings of liquid assets have mushroomed even more spectacularly.

American Individuais as whole are not debtors but huge creditors: at the end of 1052 it

It reported that Ceylon has is reckoned that they held been the only country of the listed on the exchange received Anancial assets of $303 billion, world's big four copra producers a record $2,782,083,230 in cash, ngainst dably of $99 billion. The able to maintain overseas Pales dividenda for the 1953 Brst six big deblor is, of course, that something approaching the months which was a 4.2 per cent Government. Business-non-₫ 1952 level.

Jump over the $2,042,180,450 paid out in 1952's first half.

Anancial

1 corporations---waa

ஈட்

The "Exchange" magazine bot year noted that this marked the 11th

nott dobtor for $47 billion, Hardent his has been the having credita of $120 billion Indonesian toidustry for which and debts of $167 billion.) 1052, 100, WRE G

The figure of $99 bilion for Indonesian exports, which consecutive time in which cash individuals' debts includes all sided from a post-war record dividends payments in common the mortgage

consumer of 449,000 long tons in 1851 to stocks hit a new peak in the debts it cludes the farm 282,000 long tons last year, first half of the year. United price support loans on the very totallest only $2,000 on tons Press. reasonablo ground that the during the frat half of 1037, "debtor" farmers have no ob-

and

World sugar futures held firm NEW U.S. TANKER dividuals. A sisse of prop as tradors walled word of the progress that has been made

a reduction in the output of toward establishing quotas and arms for Bghting might im- stabilising the market at pose some changes in the pat- International, Sugar Conference

the

the same period Pepper Market

In NY.

after dis-

Uigation

Meanwhile, Philippine ship- to repay them, and

ment during a "only anyway they amount to'

T Giworo also 24 per cent deyn 1- couple of billion) And obviously swamped by the $383 case of coconut bil, and 47 billion of financial assets of In-Dec 'cent in the of coprn.

* Thn Philippines suffered almost tion is useful, even in regard everywho except do the United

New York, Aug. 5. to consumer credit.

States bich increasda its Spot and nearby black pepper January-June. isterim purchase turned easier today od 137,000 tons (copra equivalent playing a steady to firm under for copra and cobana oll com- tone, Malabar spot was offered hine) in 1952 to 141,000 Tons around 1.32, and affont at 1.27 for August, and 1.19 for carly "of the have a great propensity to

September August Typhoons and penertilly, un was quoted at 1.14 and Septem spend.

Kvesihtee

reduced ber shipment at 1.00. excessive

ngs do dvourable savings

copra)" production - while the develop, the US Treasury, for reduction of Inventories by Sarawak for the first part of · one, will be very glad to hear of Butopean Latin American and August shipment was indicated them: after funding only 1 Mike East customers curtailed at 925 cents, and August ship- billion of a national debt of demand

New York, Aug. 5. One of the largest American tonkers, the Orion Comet, built for the Orion Shipping and of New York, (Mass) Shipyards Bethlehem Company,

SPENDING HADIT Clearly Americans have great spending power, Generally,

tern of production, there was 'in London. Prices of futures Trading Comp at the Quincy both they and theff Government this year.

plenty of scope elsewhere for closed as follows:- raabsorbing the released capaci

ty.

in particular, the possibility Sept that East-West' trade, and on Oct. pecially trade with China,

Jan. 1826 dan

.CONTRACT NO. 4 (WORLD)

3.at.

3.03 bid

3.10 Dua

pia

345 har

ch

might be opened up suggested May that one of the main elcets of July

Sept. the end of Korean fighting

Spot (conta par ib. Kob would soon be to increase Cuba) world demand as a whole,

Now that approaches are al- CONTRACT NO. 4

pellers

Sept ready being made for the dis- Nov. cussion of ather, outstanding In Fan. 15

Business

Three months

ternational problems this pos. March

buyers

thon did then

albility seems more Khopeful

May

July

680 680

Singapore (Sterile) Press, Indo-kaina piastres (per 100)

$1.00 2.00

Even if the Western demo- cracies reduce their armamentā |Spot: (cența per. Ib. anas programmes it does not by any

Novi

odliers Business

"Business" was alone in the local

Beled

@жCHAZEYU snarkot 1211 morning at the following rates:-- U.9, dabar (per $1)

6,985 677% Skerling noto (per #1) aged 10.83

Indonesian gulidors (per 100) 10,30- Blam cols (per 100)

A

has been

The vessel is of 29,000 dead- weight tons, is 644 feet long and ha storage capacity for 284,850 biurels of liquid cargo China Biell Special

Copra Quotation

gents

$207, billon, it had to boat a Indonesia denproved the markets ment at D0 cents Lampong for most_undignified.*** Totrans from les Norway and Japan but lost August shipment was 98 the funding polley on which it round, nearly everywhere else, and

and September 90 cents, all New York, Aug, 0.

had set its heart and staked is including the Netherional which ex-dock basis. reputation;t claimed that it tools slightly burger quantities of Supply positions vieroux- Copra was today: qualed at could not find any more savings Falloum copra in the art half Pected to tighten over the next $177.50 per short lon, elf Pucide to reabilses

my Japanese few weeks as shipments to this Coast Cocvanut oil was quoted" Finally the British

Ceylon expects totalled 40,000 country. during July wore at 1332 cents per pound, asked, mentators may be drawing a take long tons during the fent quieter all, Edices maltenpoet nominal, West Coast-United antithesis between their sup- of 1953, only 1,000 tans below the of large premiums over ships Press

posedly hidd-bound and ignorant] Jovel of 1932,—United Press, i ment positions-United Press.

com-