MESSAGERIES
P.O. Box 13, Queen's Bldg.
M
Cutwards "VIETNAM**
"CAMBODGE"
slomewards
"VIETNAM***
"CAMBODGE"
MARITIMES
Tel: 20651.
M
PASSENGER/Freight servICE
Leaves Marieliien
Rengkung
B-11 Aug
Balled
July
20 Aut.
Leaves Hongkong
Lise Marseille
August Aug.
11 Sept.
>20 Sept.
For
Yokohams
Vin Balgon Saigon
via Maracilies to all Mediterranean de West Africa porta.
via Djibouti to Madagascar..
FREIGHT SERVICE
Leavey
Europe-Sailrd
Europe-Sailed
THE CHINA MAIL, THURSDAY, AUGUST 6, 1953.
After Korea: Estimate Of Outlook
The
The end of the Korean fighting has left a mood of very guarded optimism. “This is not peace," said Genoral Clark, “but a suspension of hostilities."
been
In fact, the Korean war has never fought for victory in the ordinary sense, only to contain aggression within a limited geographical
Outwards
Hongkong
For
"COURBEULLES"
"AURAY"
"IRAQUADDY"
· Antwerp← I KOZL,
2 kept 23/20 Bapt. 12/14 Oct.
Japan Japan Здран
Homewarda
Jongkong
For
"MEKONG”
area.
#
"COURSEULLES**
"AURAY"
"IRAQUADDY"
Leaves
-Krelung-20 Aug.
22 Aug.
· · Keelung-4 October October
-Keelung-26 Oct.
Krelung 7 Nov.
28 Ocl.
#Nov.
† Balgon, Marseilles, Algiers, Oran, Tanglers, Casablanca,
Le Havre, Antwerp, Rotterdam & Dunkirk
Subject to change without notice.
*
EVERETT LINES
EVERETT ORIENT LINE
Fast regular, freight-refrigerator-passenger service to Korca, Japan, Philippines, Indo- China, Siam, Malaya, Rangoon, Calcutta and Chittagong.
"NOREVERETT“
Arrives
Salle
Aug. 18 from Singapore. Aug. 19 for, Kobe
"REBEVERETT”.
Arrives Sull's
Yokoliainn,
Aug. 28 from Manila. Aug. 20 fox Singapore. Penang. Rangoon & Calcuíto,
(Accepling, cargo for transbipment Kobo/unan and Kobe/Okinawa)
EVERETT STAR LINE
Fast regular freight-refrigerator-passenger service to Korea, Japan, Philippines, Indo- China, Siam, Malaya, Colombo, Bombay, Karachi and Persian Gulf Ports.
"STAR ARCTURUS”
Arrives Salls
Aug. 10 from Japan, Aug. 10 for Manila.
"STAR ALCYONE”
Arrives Soils
Aug. 21 from Singapore.
Aug. 22 for Noha & Japan.
(Accopliug cargo for transhipment Kabe/Puson and Kobe/Okinawa)
EVERETT STEAMSHIP CORPORATION SIA Queen's Building, Tolophono 31206.- Chinese Department: Telephone 28293.
Australian HONGKONG
"Disbalance"
With Japan
was
Canberra, Aug. 5.
on a
The Australian Commerce and Agriculture Minister, Mr Jolin NcEwen, sald today that Aus- tralia was studying her "tremen dous disbalance of trade" with Japan.
commenting statement at the Farmers and Settlers conference in Sydney that Japan might have to make heavy cuis in lie wool purchases from Australia because of its shortage of sterling.
(Japanese Embassy officials In June to have reported predicted an early
conference with Australia 10 discuss Japan's
difficulties. exchange The Chairman of the Australian Wool Growers Association, Mr R.D. Bakewell, urged
curly re-
Wero
SHARE MARKET
(From Our Correspondent)
Business done on the Stock Exchange this morning wmounted to $585,501. Noon quotations and the morning's transactions:- SHARES BUYERS SELLERS FALES
DANKS
HK Bank XD
East Asia
INSURANCES
(baton Union IK Fire
1533 12 1530
150
· [
243
0021
450
SHIPPING Waterbost
Asla Nav. DOCKS..ETC.
Dock
21.00 Provident .11.0
Wheelock
17.40
1.50
400 11.70
12 600
34.70
OK
1000
1000
859
HK Hotel 105 Land
S'hat Land
Train
lef from import restrictions LAND, ETC. from Japan which, he said, bought 15 times more goods than she sold to Australia during the first nine months of last year). UTILITIES
Mr McEwen sald today that it was important for Australia to maintain trade with Japan, which he understood had re- cently fallen from first to second. place in the list of the Domin ion's wool customers.-Reuter.
LONDON TIN
MARKET
London, Aug. 5. The tin market was quiet with spot tin marked down £14 and three months kiri remained un cheaged,
Turdver
SONI
250 tons of
which five tons' mere for cash,
closing pelees Were
follows:-
Spot tin, buyers
680
502
682
Star TerrY
.. 7.00 7.90 1000 @ 8.50 .. 0015 0111⁄2 1000 u 001)
2001 1.45 1.5232
24.00 24.00 2500 24.70
124 125
C. Light (0) 12.20 32,40 8000 120
It is not to be wondered at, therefore, that it leaves behind local politient problems as con- fused and apparently Insoluble as they were three years ago. It is these that the political conference will have to face.
U.S.:
Gloomy Business Prospects In
Prophecies Of Gloom
Views In
Bangkok
Bangkok, Aug. 5, The Korean truce has had a drastic effect on the Thal textile market as local fears increased over the prospect of increased competition from Japanese, textile manu- facturers.
Trade
revere experts predlet more competition and lower
prices from Japanese factorles as they turn from supplying the United Nations forces Korea to the production civilian goods. not
means follow that an economic recession will be precipitated.
And, in any case, it is yet decided whether they will do so, or, if they do, how big the reduction will be.
argument that the The
ent in international re- provement Nevertheless, the mere cessa-iations nov
now being achieved tion of the hot war marks an the result of Western strength achievement whose significance is compelling. is likely to grow as the per- spective lengthens.
NEED STILL THERE
E
Though some of its emotional force may now be lost and though In Korea, for the first time the agitation for some relief will since international co-operation no doubt grow, the heads of the has been seriously attempted, Governments which have tu agression has been inet by take the decisions have so far force and stopped in Its tracks, shown no sign of changing their
{policies, Because of this. whatever happens now, the world will never, be quite the same again, certainly never the same as it In fact, the expenditure at was in the 1930s, Moreover, Sghting was a very small -part the end of the fighting, because of the total military cx- it obviously ends a paragraph pendure; and the need for of post-war history. if not akeeping troops abroad, especially. chapter, has already provoked in Korea, will not lessen.
Even if changes in speculation about the future,
military especially the economie future. }expenditure, were decided
on What economie changes are now, they could not go Into for a period that is
likely to flow from the Korean effect in years rather than in
Iruce?
PSYCHOLOGY
inanmured
months; and in this time there woul be ample opportunity for
In
of
a
According to the English- language Bangkok Post, market has shown that survey of the Thai textile sales have dwindled to virtually nothing..
Meanwhile, there has also been pessimiam
among Thal food exporters, who fear. the reopening of the Chinese main- land BS A SOUTCO of foreign Биррlу.
Phyn Mahal Sawarn, former Commerce Minister and pre- sent managing director of a large export Drm, called upon the government to take steps to force down local food prices so that exporters will be able to sell at competitive prices.
overseas sales
TAKING STEPS
The former Minister expectext Japan to turn to Manchuria and
Apparently
Proved False
{BY SYDNEY S. CAMPELL, REUTER'S FINANCIAL EDITOR) Some competent British observers are bemoaning the U.S. business outlook. Their reasoning in a nutshell is as follows:
Productive capacity is about $25 billion bigger than a year ago. Unless the Americans spend $25 billion more than last year, there will be excessive savings, some capacity will be unused, and full employment will disappear.
The factors which have been sustaining full employment so far are unreliable.
The tax-aided defence and U.S. Treasury
and their sup- ; defence-supporting projects are posedly flexible and expert approaching completion.
Federal Reserve. In fact the
Rally On NY Stock Exchange
The backlog of civilian invest.Treasury and the Fett appear to ment projects which have been the Treasury team
be working in great harmony; held up by the defence
extraordin Pro arlly gramme is "only" abouls
strong, and in recent weeks, $13 billion, which is not enough to doc
$0 for from proving keep things going since it will flexible to for beyond) the veTEC doctrinaire, has proved itself not necessarily come fuske any of inconsistency. one year.
Consistency being the bugbear of fools, it sparked n
On
New York, Aug; 5. A run-up in rail and oil stocks late rally in the
The past year's Inflation consumer credit will bring it has proved anything but foolish. stock market today that pushed meinests: Incomer and spending the contrary, it has promptly stocks up by which have been augmented by ing wind.
rimuned its salls to the prevall average after early realising.
a few cents on incurring this debt will be de-
In picted by repaying the
the mid-July week when the instal
The advance was accompanied out in reserve ratios ments on it.
(effective by a sharp upturn in Activity July 0) The "normal"
added about $000 million which boosted the total sales for Increase in spending on non-durables and banks, the authorities did not yesterday's one million. Earlier to the reserves of the big elly the day 1,000,000 shares from services is only about $5 billion mop up any of the money by in the day, when pr
profit-taking
₤1
year.
The budget, which ought to reselling any of their big recent
was cutting He said Thalland faced the have been expansionist so as to open-market purchases of bills. Ingged at the smallest level in prospect of losing its soya bean enlarge spending, la instead demore in that wock, since $900 today was much like that yes- Naturally they did pot buy any more than a week. The inte riso as well as the signed to cut total spending by markel for other perishable about $3 billion in the coming million is, in all conscience, a terday but more effective. This commodities produced by Com-year.
big enough injection into the with increased activity on the munist China.
credit base for one week. But as upside were listed by market- PURE NONSENSE? they did not resell any, the nett men as indications of the mar
excess reserves of the member ket's underlying strength. A business-men's government banks Jumped to which does
to 3941 milion The truce hay been so long seeing that other demand. Vas China as sources of supply for arbitrary balancing of the bud-ings of about shat amount) to terrupted at intervals for con-
not know what is (less
than 3 good for business is intent
months ogo they
Most analysis look for an ex- in negotiation and these
on were plagued with nett borrow-tension of the summer rally in- nego- adequate. tiations have been so often ap- Rehabilitation expenditure is
get instead of real balancing of feather-bed the Treasury's issue solidation, They pointed parently near conclusion that already being Increased, and i
the economy. most of the immediate changes all countries here is ample
Meanwhile, the That Gover-
The
or 24 per only hope is that
cent certificates, that market factors now are ment is taking steps to coun-Federal Reserve, for the which might otherwise have scope for reducing
the Provisionally, one may conclude predominantly favourable with taxation
teract the effects of a trade re-
right that the idea already along with expenditure. This
of deflationary] the growing list of good cara- Congress, for the seal and monetary policy in the ins coesion, it was reliably reported. reasons, and
reports and cheerful hardly be, Ilkely to
Phra Bortphand Yudhakich
wrong oncs, will pull things US. is a mare's nest.Reuter. forecasts the main-stays. round to u depress anyone.
a sufflelent degree of a reporter that measures to halt tax
reflation or inflation. wore to be taken
All this
turn may
be evasion and colicet all taxes due
out to true, but equally I may the government.
turn
Jave
would
been expcoted laken place.
Between the end of. March, for example, and mid-June ( been from every other point of Agonising though they have was in April, that peace first
Dow view, the delays in the truce seemed inimiinent} Jones index of Industrials
gotiations have, in fact, had gistered a fall on Wall Street one good effect.
They have enabled the im
took
the
53
ikese commodities
told
+
He said measures included getting all allens to pay their fees, assuring that shops pay taxes on all sales and making certain that all merchants who have not. paid taxes catch up OD their
arrcors in the near future.
;
in
On
BANK'S VIEWS
Cily
out
hit
Gains in rails ranged to 3%. points in Missouri, Kansas and New York, Aug. 4. Texas, preferred, which moved out to be pompous nonsense. It There are only slight chances up in active trading. Oll gains takes some self-assurance to for a recession in the United ranged to 34 points in Texa from over 200 to under 265; the
looture American businessmen for States this year-if any, sc Pacific Land Trust, but there not same kind of fall, though less mediate economic effects of the
not knowing what is good for cording to the National
were several wide lesses too, pronouneeti,
place
them, In cease-fire to be spread over
considering what
of New York's August they Bank
Barber was down 11⁄2 paints, equities on the London mar-several months, and its more
have made of American Industry Letter. ket; and in the Far East the remote effects to be considered
Mid-Continent ! In comparison
with the industry The
114 points, Inajority of so-called Steels and motors moved par "Korean" commodities, rubber (without haste. In economie
not merely of any
other country bearish influences have beca and tin,
rowly. Copper clocks were have both reacted | affairs, too, the proper note is
but of the rest of the world put exaggerated largely in the now one of guarded optimism.~-
together and
heavily following nanouncement remembering public's mind, it finds. 108 The Financial Times.
thût, within the lifetime of
of lower prices in the industry. the subject of defence Anaconda fell 14 points, Ken than Britain's Industry.
that for a year and a half a cupoint, It is not easy to see why in defence spenting hat been backlog of $13 billion of civilian soen as a prime reason for ex- investment projects should be pecting a recession. It pointed written off as chicken-feed, out that the argument would while budgetary spending cut have more force defence of $3 billion is regarded as dan spending had been built up in gerous deflation.
the last few months to the faint Unless it materialises it will once expected. not be deflationary at all, and
The actual trend, however, there is no certainty that if hath been more early level and will materialise
reductions and economics could There may be smo Incon-hardly be prime-factors: Ja-out sistencies in the
argument.ing defence
SUMU
sharply.
Though there were smail movements in the same direction following the signing
of the armistice, the evidence suggests that these changes run
have alreally pretty well their full course.
The main cause of the Lik "psychological changes after
the fighting in Koren started is now nbsent.
LITTLE SCOPE
The Rubber
Markets
Lendon, Aug. 5. The rubber market was quiet. Prices closed a= follows-- The shock-of-the-news-and No 1-RSS-#pol -
- 107%==% Settlement
the expectation
that prices Business would rise then set off a wave (No 1, ASS, General market,
of buying for stock which add-Estate crepe Aug, thick
bagin
ed fuel to the flames of infla- tion.
Stocks are not high
anywhere.
now
certainly not in America, and unless a big re-.
were expected there is
Chin
1034-18
101.91
215-
2015-21
United Preat. NEW YORK MARKET
New York, Aug. 5, ccasion and a big fall in prices Rubber futures
today closed Je 20 points higher with sales of БТОРС for corresponding six contracts. Traders sald the
destocking movement.
scene
was the expected decline tople now living, it was simbilor i spending, the National City held nocoti 116 and Miami Copper
Adding to the general gloom In Thailand's economic
business by shipping lines as the general decline in world tin, rubber and other commodity prices continued.-Urited Press,
NEW YORK
FOREIGN
EXCHANGES
Canada
New York, Aug. 3.
England-official unomelal 30-day futures 90-day futures
Australis New Zealand
South Afrien Delgium Denmark
France
market was very active once As a matter of fact, even in again. Trade spokesmen were the knowledge that. peace in Korca was likely to be signed prospect that the
ed, generally disappointed over the Government practically all forecasts In
synthetic plants would not be America for the near, future sold before 1955, have recently been optimistic."
Some
Increased buy- expected This is not to say that the
activity might be in the end of fighting in Korea willing not produce any psychological ning on the heels of the re- duced activity lately with prices generally expected to hold stendy, It must always be bered that even now American 234 cents a pound, unchanged Egypt
remem-No. 1 RSS spot was priced at defence expenditure only
from yesterday. counts for about 15 per cent Sept. of the national output, so that Dee.
changes:
the private seator is of decl-March 1054 sive importance.
·
May July Sept.
MORE HOPEFUL
But the probability that there will be no great down- ward movements either markets or in production general is reinforced by
her circumstances.
23.18 23.03 21.30 bid 23.70 bid 22.65 nom, 22.03 nem. United Press.
Argentina Brazil Bolivia
US$1.01-3/12
2.41-11/14
2.69-2.73
2. BG-19/10
2.BOY
2.25
2,30% 2.81-10/10
0.007 .1455
DELZI
2015
0014
.1405
10335
Germany
Holland Italy
Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland
,0200 18:30
.233414
MIDDLE EAST
Futures were
Iron
Irea
2.00%
03123 20212
Turkey
LATIN AMEBIÇA
.0725
.0303
0043
.0001
P1220
1.00
1163
Peru Uniguay
.05.20
Venezuela
2003
FAR EAST
Indip
2113
Pakistan
2044
Ilongkang
1750
dollar) Japan
indonesia Singapore
.0000
(Straite
3230
360 yen to UBJI
-United Press.
in New York Sugar
in
two
When in April world mar- kets first fell because peace seemed likely, the very sharp- nors of the fall provoked some scepticism about its causes.
Is it indeed true that the
ot prosperity
the Western democracies depends on their ormaments intustries?
It was then realised and it
2008. is still true today that though
Tôi thường (N) Ela B50 200 g BH
1000 # 820 2000 8.10 Electric .... 20.7050.00 2100 28.00 Telephone.
3000 # 21.00 INDUSTRIALS
Comert
.... fano
600 18.30 STORES, ETC.
Dairy330m30 500ʼn 22.30
Watson
COTTONS
EWO
23.00
5000 22.10
MISCELLANEOUS
Yangine (0) 6.25 6.00
Yanguzo (19) 0.95 0.05 2009 @ 5.30
**Exchange Rates
Market
Now York, Aug, 0. World sugar futures closed today one to five points higher with sales, of 103 contracts Domestle
was unchanged mugor to 3 points higher with sales of 100 contracts.
Chile Columbia
Mexica
The market broadened to 1,068 issues with 459 higher, 334 lower, and 276 unchanged,
The New York Stock EX- change bond volume was 2.200,- 000, and the American Stock Exchange volume was at 200,000, Dow Jones closing averages:-
30 Industrials
Aug.-4
275.00
105,81
40,88
107.51
05.32
159.40
-United Press.
Farm price supports (to name was unlikely in which
drop by more 20 Rails only one spending sector) are than $3,000,000,000 in the cur 15 Uulitics
so inflationary rent fiscal supposed to be
year (by pretent 63 Stocks as to threaten to bankrupt the inkitentions), the Bank said. 40 Bonds U.S. Treasury eventually, while United Press,
Comm. Futures Prices generod spending hablis are
Index supposed to be deflationary.
HUGE CREDITOR
The propensity of the Ameri. cons to run into debt, as ovidenced by the recent inda- tion of consumer credit, is not easy to reconelle with a fore- cast of their propensity to save excessively,
as has fact, spectacular been the mushrooming of American private debt in post-
In
War
SLUMP IN
COPRA
EXPORTS
Washington, Aug. 6.
- Dividends At Record High
New York, Aug. 4. Copra and cocoakut all ex- Common dividends reached a ports by the Philippines, Indo-record high in the first half of China and Maloga have clumped 1953, the New York sharply this year, according to Exchange has announced. the US Agriculture Department.
Stock
Owners of common shares
period, private holdings of liquid assets have mushroomed even more spectacularly.
American Individuais as whole are not debtors but huge creditors: at the end of 1052 it
It reported that Ceylon has is reckoned that they held been the only country of the listed on the exchange received Anancial assets of $303 billion, world's big four copra producers a record $2,782,083,230 in cash, ngainst dably of $99 billion. The able to maintain overseas Pales dividenda for the 1953 Brst six big deblor is, of course, that something approaching the months which was a 4.2 per cent Government. Business-non-₫ 1952 level.
Jump over the $2,042,180,450 paid out in 1952's first half.
Anancial
1 corporations---waa
ஈட்
The "Exchange" magazine bot year noted that this marked the 11th
nott dobtor for $47 billion, Hardent his has been the having credita of $120 billion Indonesian toidustry for which and debts of $167 billion.) 1052, 100, WRE G
The figure of $99 bilion for Indonesian exports, which consecutive time in which cash individuals' debts includes all sided from a post-war record dividends payments in common the mortgage
consumer of 449,000 long tons in 1851 to stocks hit a new peak in the debts it cludes the farm 282,000 long tons last year, first half of the year. United price support loans on the very totallest only $2,000 on tons Press. reasonablo ground that the during the frat half of 1037, "debtor" farmers have no ob-
and
World sugar futures held firm NEW U.S. TANKER dividuals. A sisse of prop as tradors walled word of the progress that has been made
a reduction in the output of toward establishing quotas and arms for Bghting might im- stabilising the market at pose some changes in the pat- International, Sugar Conference
the
the same period Pepper Market
In NY.
after dis-
Uigation
Meanwhile, Philippine ship- to repay them, and
ment during a "only anyway they amount to'
T Giworo also 24 per cent deyn 1- couple of billion) And obviously swamped by the $383 case of coconut bil, and 47 billion of financial assets of In-Dec 'cent in the of coprn.
* Thn Philippines suffered almost tion is useful, even in regard everywho except do the United
New York, Aug. 5. to consumer credit.
States bich increasda its Spot and nearby black pepper January-June. isterim purchase turned easier today od 137,000 tons (copra equivalent playing a steady to firm under for copra and cobana oll com- tone, Malabar spot was offered hine) in 1952 to 141,000 Tons around 1.32, and affont at 1.27 for August, and 1.19 for carly "of the have a great propensity to
September August Typhoons and penertilly, un was quoted at 1.14 and Septem spend.
Kvesihtee
reduced ber shipment at 1.00. excessive
ngs do dvourable savings
copra)" production - while the develop, the US Treasury, for reduction of Inventories by Sarawak for the first part of · one, will be very glad to hear of Butopean Latin American and August shipment was indicated them: after funding only 1 Mike East customers curtailed at 925 cents, and August ship- billion of a national debt of demand
New York, Aug. 5. One of the largest American tonkers, the Orion Comet, built for the Orion Shipping and of New York, (Mass) Shipyards Bethlehem Company,
SPENDING HADIT Clearly Americans have great spending power, Generally,
tern of production, there was 'in London. Prices of futures Trading Comp at the Quincy both they and theff Government this year.
plenty of scope elsewhere for closed as follows:- raabsorbing the released capaci
ty.
in particular, the possibility Sept that East-West' trade, and on Oct. pecially trade with China,
Jan. 1826 dan
.CONTRACT NO. 4 (WORLD)
3.at.
3.03 bid
3.10 Dua
pia
345 har
ch
might be opened up suggested May that one of the main elcets of July
Sept. the end of Korean fighting
Spot (conta par ib. Kob would soon be to increase Cuba) world demand as a whole,
Now that approaches are al- CONTRACT NO. 4
pellers
Sept ready being made for the dis- Nov. cussion of ather, outstanding In Fan. 15
Business
Three months
ternational problems this pos. March
buyers
thon did then
albility seems more Khopeful
May
July
680 680
Singapore (Sterile) Press, Indo-kaina piastres (per 100)
$1.00 2.00
Even if the Western demo- cracies reduce their armamentā |Spot: (cența per. Ib. anas programmes it does not by any
Novi
odliers Business
"Business" was alone in the local
Beled
@жCHAZEYU snarkot 1211 morning at the following rates:-- U.9, dabar (per $1)
6,985 677% Skerling noto (per #1) aged 10.83
Indonesian gulidors (per 100) 10,30- Blam cols (per 100)
A
has been
The vessel is of 29,000 dead- weight tons, is 644 feet long and ha storage capacity for 284,850 biurels of liquid cargo China Biell Special
Copra Quotation
gents
$207, billon, it had to boat a Indonesia denproved the markets ment at D0 cents Lampong for most_undignified.*** Totrans from les Norway and Japan but lost August shipment was 98 the funding polley on which it round, nearly everywhere else, and
and September 90 cents, all New York, Aug, 0.
had set its heart and staked is including the Netherional which ex-dock basis. reputation;t claimed that it tools slightly burger quantities of Supply positions vieroux- Copra was today: qualed at could not find any more savings Falloum copra in the art half Pected to tighten over the next $177.50 per short lon, elf Pucide to reabilses
my Japanese few weeks as shipments to this Coast Cocvanut oil was quoted" Finally the British
Ceylon expects totalled 40,000 country. during July wore at 1332 cents per pound, asked, mentators may be drawing a take long tons during the fent quieter all, Edices maltenpoet nominal, West Coast-United antithesis between their sup- of 1953, only 1,000 tans below the of large premiums over ships Press
posedly hidd-bound and ignorant] Jovel of 1932,—United Press, i ment positions-United Press.
com-