CO537-5000 — Page 50

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10 October 1949

10.

Annex I to JIC (FE) (49)41(Final)

Air Threat

49.

The air threat would be little greater at first but would be increased by the participation of up to 200 Soviet tactical bombers and up to 160 Soviet ground attack fighters, as airfields in Central and South China were stocked up as bases for their use. There would also be occasional sorties from Soviet territory by long range bombers carrying 20,000 lbs of bombs each.

50.

From the point of view of availability of air fields, the Soviet Air Force is unlikely to experience any great difficulty in deploying its tactical bombers and ground attack fighters in South China. Serious logistical problems would, however, be involved in the provision of adequate supplies for their force over long and vulnerable communications. Unless these difficulties could be satisfactorily overcome some reduction in the above sortie rates could be expected.

Maritime Threat

09

51.

In the event of war with the Soviet Union and the C.C.F. the maritime threats to Hong Kong will be as described in paragraphs. 40 to 45 with the additional threat of attack by Soviet submarines and the added consideration that our own naval forces may be weaker than at present. Submarine attacks might include minelaying and the launching of small battle units, and there would be a danger of torpedo attacks in the approaches. The scale of Russian submarine attack on the area is, however, unlikely to be heavy in view of the other commitments of the Soviet Navy.

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