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12.

1.

ANNEX I. of Ce S(44) Ja

Ton 94001/24/48)

PLANS FOR THE DEFENCE OF HONG KONG

IN THE PRESENT EMERGENCY

201 Fancy

As a result of the situation in China the Commanders-in-Chief, Far East, have submitted their appreciationt on the probable effect on Hong Kong and the forces required to meet an emergency.

2. The Colonial office, in consultation with the Governor of Hong Kong, have examined this appreciation+ with which they are not altogether in agreement, and have submitted their views in a memorandum to the Chiefs of Staff. It is clear, however, that the Governor was not fully consulted before the appreciation by the Commanders-in-Chief was forwarded in its final form.

3. We compare at Appendix the views expressed by the Commanders-in-Chief, Far East, with those submitted by the Colonial Office and give our detailed comments which have already been sent to the Colonial Office and the Commanders- in-Chief, Middle East.

Conclusions

4.

From this examination we conclude that:-

(a) The internal security threat, as envisaged

by the Commanders-in-Chief, Far East, may materialise before the third quarter of 1949.

(b) The most immediate threat to the Colony is a vast influx of refugees; Communist inspired strikes may occur simultaneously.

(c) The repercussion of such an influx on the

internal security and administrative commit- ments in Hong Kong would be extremely serious.

(a) The military garrison must therefore be

prepared to concentrate at prosent on aiding the Civil Government in mecting the immediate refugee threat, since the possibility of external aggression is more remote.

(e) The Civil authorities must consider taking all

possible steps to counter and control the refugee problem including the erection of wire, making arrangements for food rationing and registration, establishing a refugee organisation and expanding the existing Hong Kong Police Force and Defence Force. The raising of a separate Auxiliary Police Force is considered impracticable.

(8) 4400/29/45. 94001/29/4.5

(4)

SEACOS 872 dated 15 December 1948 SEACOS 874 dated 23 December 1948

0.0.S. (49) 12 Sec App if(1) on 94007/29/19

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