CO537-4998 — Page 146

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APPRECIATION OF THE SITUATION

For the Defence of HONG KONG Colony.

REVIEW OF THE SITUATION.

1.

2.

It has been decided that with the present garrison HONG KONG cannot be held against a major attack by a first class power, but it will be held against attack by a "ar Lord or Chinese Army, provided that the Garrison strength is three infantry battalions (one British), a Field Regiment, that the Hong Kong Volunteer Defence Force has been reformed at least to the strength of one Infantry battalion - 500 Auxiliaries and a Heavy Anti Aircraft Battery.

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In order that the above Force may operate successfully, e.g. without being tied down by static tasks: -

(a) A special Constabulary under the Commissioner of Police

must be formed.

(b) In addition some Naval support both in gunfire and

conveying supplies will be necessary.

(c) Some RAF fighter support must be made available.

This appreciation is based on the assumption that the above arrangements, if not already made, will be put in hand immediately. Unless this is done, even a minor War Lord, if he is supported from inside the Colony, which he undoubtedly will be, could in all probability make the problem of holding HONG KONG Colony extremely difficult.

THE AIM.

3.

To hold the Colony of HONG KONG indefinitely against attack by a War Lord or a Chinese attack inspired by the Communists or Nationalists.

FACTORS AFFECTING ATTAINMENT OF THE AIM - RE ATIVE STRENGTHS.

4.

5.

Enemy Airforces.

Although the situation envisaged may well develop without war with a ma or power occurring, the air threat under the circumstances of war with RUSSIA must be taken into account. In the latter case, the scale of air defences envisaged in the Review would not be sufficient and the defences required form the subject of a separate study.

The strength of the airforces which a War Lord or Chinese Force is likely to be able to bring to bear against this Colony is problematical, but attacks are likely to be on a light scale and inaccurate, incendiaries and H.E. being used.

Own Airforces.

(a) The present R.A.F. strength consists of six Sunderland

Flying Boats, which would be of small value either to support or supply the Army in the field. As stated in the Review some R.A.F. fighter reinforcement will be necessary if the Colony is to be defended successfully. It is understood that a fighter squadron is available from MALAYA at 48 hours notice. This would be sufficient.

The question of whether transport support is required is discussed later in the paper.

./ (b)