CO537-(205_1260-1262) — Page 251

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(a) A direct land assault by c. Chinese army of up

to 75,000 men, led by a Southern War Lord is notontial threat.

(e) Piracy on local shipping is c. nossibility at

all times.

(f) guerilla croy night march on Hong Kong as

the result of internal unrest or civil war in Cline.

Sumery of Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee Report

in

/e attach at innox I a report by the J. I. C., 1 which they examino Sections I and III of the C.-in-C. a appreciation. hose scctions covor potential onony forces available to attack Hong Kong, and the possible forms of attack open to the onomy.

The J. I. C. havo assumed in making thidir report that some form of garrison would be maintained at Hong Kong. They consider that if no such arrison were maintained, the potential throat would be increased.

Their report

shows that :-

(a) The J. I. C. agree with C.-in-C., Hong Kong regarding

China's cspirations. There are indications, however, tixt the chinese will not confins themselves to purely diplomatic means in bringing pressure to bear for the recovery of Hong Kong.

(b) direct land assault on the row Territories,

coupled with ineffective air raids on port or military installations (which might have some cffect on civilian morale) and limited mining from junks is only likely in the future if open hostilities break out with the Central Govoriment. The possibility of this within the next tun yours is so romote as to be nogligible.

(c) Modern arms and equipment, including aircraft and transport, would not in all probability be vaillo to a Frovincial War Lord, should

onc rise in S. China to challenge the rule of Chiang Kai-Shok. In any case the possibility of direct attack: by n Provincial War Lord

can also be excluded.

(d) The most likely form of attack is by infiltration

of a large number of agents into the Chinese populatio to organise strikes, civil unrest and boycott. This might well be carried out in conjunction with the interruption of food c.nd other suplies to the Colony from China, to lend weight to the political campaign for recovery of Hong Kong.

(e) The movements of Chinese to ad from Hong Kong

cannot be controlled; arms up to and including L.M.G. and sucll morters can be smuggled into the Colony in ler o quantities.

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N

Ref:

CO 537/1260

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