CO537-(205_1260-1262) — Page 242

1)

7

00201

ENCE PLAN

lligence Sub-Committoo

Joint Planning Staff to

in appreciation by the

in the Defence of Hong Kong,

:ential threat to Hong Kong,

for an intelligence

mander-in-Chief, Hong Kong's

e as follows:-

resent, no nation except

wrest Hong Kong from British or war between China and

crs is so remote as to be

t to recover the Colony

t give Chine diplomatic support.

incpt at mounting an attack

a major success in the

with Japan.

's disposal are estimated

ver been, and is never

ciunt fighting force.

cms

Ref:

CO 537/1260

THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES

F

N

restrictions. Further information is given in the enclosed Terms and Conditions of supply of National

Please note that this copy is supplied subject to the National Archives' terms and conditions and that your use of it may be subject to copyright

ps in the present day

o trained and equipped by

amount to approximately number about 390,000

cquipped with infantry

d.

field and medium artillery.

artillery personnel is

Some captured

e available but a co-

moured formations is

t has not been developed

00202

cms

CO 537/1260

THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES

N

restrictions Further information is given in the enclosed Terms and Conditions of supply of National Archives' leaflet.

a that this copy is supplied subject to the National Archives' terms and conditions and that your use of it may be subject to copyrigh

but the Chinese are known to be in possession of an American trained Parachute Regiment; this regiment has not so far had battle experience. Without American aid, the Chinese Army would be ineffective against trained troops, and in the unlikely event of war between Great Britain and China, we consider that American personnel would not participate on the side of China.

(c) Air Force

It is estimated that, at present, China has

available 400 first line aircraft to which total are being added approximately 400 Japanese and at least 300 modern American planes. Severe limitations would be imposed on their operational use by poor servicing, once American supervision is withdrawn. It 18 considered that, under these conditions, air support for military operations could not be sustained but would be limited to sporadic raids, which would be ineffective in face of opposition, The danger of mining by aircraft 18 considered negligible.

POLITICAL FACTORS

Past

5. The declared policy of the Central Government is to recover Hong Kong by diplomatic means. This policy has been maintained since Japan's surrender, and was reaffirmed by Chiang Kai-shek in a speech on 24th August, 1945. experience and present indications suggest, however, that the Chinese will not confine themselves to purely diplomatic means in bringing pressure to bear for the recovery of Hong Kong. For example, a propaganda campaign to recover the colony for China has already been experienced in a mild form, and has recently been reinforced by a press agitation arising out of the displacement of Chinese from the site of a new airfield in the New Territories. It is considered that the campaign will be maintained and intensified by the Central Government as a natural prelude and adjunct to pressure by diplomatic means for the recovery of the Colony. This pressure is likely to be directed in the first place against the New Territories, a formal claim for whose retrocession is to be expected in the near future,

POSSIBLE FORMS OF ATTACK

6. (A) Direct assault by land on the Frontier of the New Territories. There might also be some unco-ordinated and limited mining by Junks.

(B)

Ineffective air raids on Port or Military installations, which may, however, have some effect on civilian morale.

(C) Individual raids by pirates for personal

gain.

(D) Sporadic Guerilla raids as the result of internal unrest or civil war in China.

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