CO537-(205_1260-1262) — Page 196

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Ref:

CO 537/1260

THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES

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restrictions. Further information is given in the enclosed "Terms and Conditions of

that this copy is supplied subject to the National Archives' terms and conditions and that your use of it may be subject to copyright

supply of Nation

(e) Piracy on local shipping is a possibility

at all times.

(f) A guerilla amny might march on Hong Kong

as the result of internal unrest or civil war in China.

Summary of Joint Intelligence Sub-Committec Report

3. We attach at Annex I a report by the Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee, in which they examine Sections II and III of the C.-in-C.'s appreciation.

This report shows that:-

(a)

The J.I.C. agree with C.-in-C. Hong Kong regarding China's aspirations. There

are indications, however, that the Chinose will not confine themselves to purely diplomatic means in bringing pressure to bear for the recovery of Hong Kong.

(b) A direct land assault on the Now Territories,

coupled with ineffective air raids on port or military installations (which might have some effect on civilian morale) and limited mining from junks, is only likely in the future if open hostilities break out with

The possibility of the Contral Government. this within the next ten years is so remote as to be negligible.

(c) Modern arms and equipment including aircraft

and transport, would not in all probability

(a)

be available to a provincial "ar Lord, should one arise in S. China to challenge the rule of Chiang Kai-Shek. The possibility of an attack by a provincial War Lord can also be excluded as long as a garrison of approximately its present size is available to act as a deterrent.

The most likely form of attack is by infiltration

of a large number of agents into the Chinese population to organise strikes, civil unrest and boycott. This might well be carried out in conjunction with the interruption of food and other supplies to the Colony from China, to lond weight to the political campaign for recovery of Hong Kong.

(e) The movements of Chinese to and from Hong

cannot be controlled. arms up to and including L. M.G. and small mortare can be amuggled into the Colony in large quantities.

(f) Piracy is probable at all times and is likely

to increase if the situation developed as

in (d) above.

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