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Ref:
CO 537/1260
THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES
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(e) Piracy on local shipping is a possibility
at all times.
(f) A guerilla amny might march on Hong Kong
as the result of internal unrest or civil war in China.
Summary of Joint Intelligence Sub-Committec Report
3. We attach at Annex I a report by the Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee, in which they examine Sections II and III of the C.-in-C.'s appreciation.
This report shows that:-
(a)
The J.I.C. agree with C.-in-C. Hong Kong regarding China's aspirations. There
are indications, however, that the Chinose will not confine themselves to purely diplomatic means in bringing pressure to bear for the recovery of Hong Kong.
(b) A direct land assault on the Now Territories,
coupled with ineffective air raids on port or military installations (which might have some effect on civilian morale) and limited mining from junks, is only likely in the future if open hostilities break out with
The possibility of the Contral Government. this within the next ten years is so remote as to be negligible.
(c) Modern arms and equipment including aircraft
and transport, would not in all probability
(a)
be available to a provincial "ar Lord, should one arise in S. China to challenge the rule of Chiang Kai-Shek. The possibility of an attack by a provincial War Lord can also be excluded as long as a garrison of approximately its present size is available to act as a deterrent.
The most likely form of attack is by infiltration
of a large number of agents into the Chinese population to organise strikes, civil unrest and boycott. This might well be carried out in conjunction with the interruption of food and other supplies to the Colony from China, to lond weight to the political campaign for recovery of Hong Kong.
(e) The movements of Chinese to and from Hong
cannot be controlled. arms up to and including L. M.G. and small mortare can be amuggled into the Colony in large quantities.
(f) Piracy is probable at all times and is likely
to increase if the situation developed as
in (d) above.
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