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Some cargo originating in north China moved by road, rail and coastal feeders to Hong Kong. Much of this could be diverted to north China ports. Mr Clark said that the amount of diversion would be determined by the rate of development of those ports.. However, this cargo represented only a small proportion of Hong Kong's total cargo base.
"Japanese ports, especially Kobe, have always handled large volumes of north and eastern Chinese transhipment cargo. Future changes are not likely to have a significant impact on Hong Kong, particularly in the light of Kobe's relative high
costs.
"Kaohsiung, however, is well placed to take Hong Kong transhipment cargo originating in eastern and northern China. It can also compete for southern China cargo, shipping it through feeder ports like Shekou and Chiwan and river ports such as Huangpu.
a year.
"Our current estimates put the volume of this cargo at about one million TEUs
Mr Clark said: "In addition to China cargo, Taiwan will also compete with us for transhipment from Vietnam and the Philippines.
"The amount of cargo diverted from Hong Kong will be determined by the availability of low-cost and efficient port and liner services in China and Taiwan. As alternatives become more cost and service effective, cargo diversion will increase, particularly from north, central and east China."
Mr Clark said that despite the diversion of some of its business to mainland and regional ports Hong Kong: "Still needs to build container facilities as quickly as we can over the next decade just to keep up with demand."
He pointed out that: "Total cargo tonnage by all means of transport in Hong Kong is forecast to grow from 157 million tonnes in 1994 to 513 million tonnes in 2016. About 88 per cent of this cargo, or 453 million tonnes in 2016, will pass through the port.
"This means that our total container throughput, just over 11 million TEUS in 1994, will grow to 18 million TEUS in 1998, 23 million in 2001, 31 million in 2006 and nearly 40 million in 2016."
There was, he said, a limit to the port development that Hong Kong could sustain. This meant that: "In the future there must be more port development in China. It is one of the world's fastest growing economies and port development must, eventually, keep pace with that growth.