INFLATION
10
FRIDAY, MAY 27, 1994
FIRST
CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION MODERATED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE QUARTER OF 1994. THE YEAR-ON-YEAR RATE OF INCREASE IN THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (A) DECELERATED FROM 8.7% IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 1993 TO 7.3% IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1994.
A BROADLY AND 7.9% OF
THE CPI(B), HANG SENG CPI AND COMPOSITE CPI SHOWED SIMILAR
9.3% TREND, MODERATING
WITH INCREASES OF 7.7%, RESPECTIVELY IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1994, COMPARED WITH INCREASES 8.6%, 9.7% AND 8.9% IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 1993.
THE GDP DEFLATOR, AS A BROAD MEASURE OF OVERALL THE ECONOMY, ALSO EXHIBITED A MODERATING TREND MORE YEAR-ON-YEAR RATE OF INCREASE DECELERATED MARKEDLY TO FOURTH QUARTER OF 1993, FROM 7.7% IN THE THIRD QUARTER.
INFLATION IN RECENTLY. ITS
6.0% IN
THE
UPDATED FORECASTS
THE
BY
TABLE
BEEN REVIEWED AND PRICE FORECASTS FOR 1994 HAVE GDP INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS. THE UPDATED FORECASTS ARE SUMMARISED IN
1.
TERMS IN THE EXTERNAL SECTOR, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL
THIS HAS OF RE-EXPORTS IN 1994 IS REVISED DOWNWARDS, FROM 22% TO 17%. TAKEN
A INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT SLOW-DOWN IN GROWTH IN RE-EXPORTS TO NUMBER OF MARKETS.
THE LOOKING AHEAD, THE PERFORMANCE OF RE-EXPORTS WILL HINGE ON
IMPORTS IN PACE OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND THE STRENGTH OF DEMAND FOR THE MAJOR INDUSTRIALISED COUNTRIES.
IN
MEASURES CHINA, CONTINUATION OF THE ECONOMIC RESTRAINT LIKELY TO DAMPEN FURTHER THE DEMAND FOR IMPORTS FOR CHINA'S OWN USE.
ON
IS
DOMESTIC EXPORTS, PERFORMANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SLACK DEMAND FOR SUCH EXPORTS IN THE MAJOR MARKETS AND THE ONGOING SHIFT TO RE-EXPORTS.
IN THE LIGHT OF THE RECENT TREND, DOMESTIC EXPORTS IN 1994 EXPECTED TO SHOW A LARGER DECLINE, BY 5% IN REAL TERMS INSTEAD OF AS FORECAST EARLIER.
ARE 2%
TAKING RE-EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC EXPORTS TOGETHER, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF TOTAL EXPORTS IN 1994 IS ACCORDINGLY LOWERED, FROM 16.5% TO 12%.
THE
IS 1994 FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF IMPORTS IN
OUTTURN OF REDUCED FROM 16.7% TO 12.2%, HAVING REGARD TO THE ACTUAL BOTH RE-EXPORTS AND RETAINED IMPORTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER.
LOOKING AHEAD, RETAINED IMPORTS OF MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT WILL GOODS PROBABLY PICK UP SOMEWHAT, WHILE RETAINED IMPORTS OF CONSUMER CAN BE EXPECTED TO RISE IN LINE WITH THE STEADY GROWTH IN SPENDING.
CONSUMER
/THE FORECAST