01
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TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 1993
"IT CERTAINLY SHOULD MEAN A BETTER CHANCE OF ACHIEVING HONG KONG'S LONG-TERM ANNUAL ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST OF 5 PER CENT IN THE YEARS AHEAD, GIVEN STEADIER, MORE CONTROLLED GROWTH ACROSS THE BORDER."
ON CHINA'S MOST FAVOURED NATION STATUS, MR MILLER CAUTIONED THAT 1994 WOULD BE A DIFFICULT YEAR FOR HONG KONG.
HE SAID: "PRESIDENT CLINTON'S EXECUTIVE ORDER MAKES THIS MORE OF A BILATERAL ISSUE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA THAN EVER BEFORE.
"
"AS THE ANNUAL JUNE 3 DEADLINE APPROACHES YET AGAIN, AND HONG KONG NERVES BECOME TAUT, THE TEMPTATION TO INDULGE IN HIGH-PROFILE LOBBYING GESTURES WILL INCREASE. BUT THEY RISK HONG KONG BEING ASKED TO SPEAK ON CHINA'S BEHALF, SOMETHING CHINA MIGHT REASONABLY RESENT.
THE
"THERE IS A GOOD DEAL WE MUST DO, QUIETLY TALKING TO U.S. BUSINESSES WITH MUTUAL INTERESTS IN THIS REGION, WE WILL CONTINUE OUR FAR-RANGING EFFORTS TO REMIND U.S. OFFICIALS AND POLITICIANS OF POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO HONG KONG. AND HONG KONG BUSINESSMEN WILL BE TALKING TO THEIR CONTACTS IN BEIJING.
"BUT VITAL TO THE SUCCESS OF ALL THESE EFFORTS WILL BE A LOW- PROFILE APPROACH AND A SENSITIVE MESSAGE."
STRESSING THE UNITED STATES' VITAL ROLE IN THE MULTILATERAL TRADING SYSTEM, MR MILLER SAID PRESIDENT CLINTON HAD PUT A HIGH PRIORITY ON TRADE ISSUES.
"HE IS PUSHING TO DEVELOP THE ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC CO- OPERATION FORUM; HE HAS INVESTED CONSIDERABLE POLITICAL CAPITAL IN THE NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT; AND HE ACHIEVED A STRONG VOTE OF CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL FOR RENEWING HIS NEGOTIATING AUTHORITY IN THE
URUGUAY ROUND.
"HE HAS SAID OF THE URUGUAY ROUND THAT 'WORLD ECONOMIC PROSPERITY DEPENDS UPON IT. IT'S THE FOUNDATION OF THE GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM. HE IS RIGHT. AND WE NEED THE MORAL LEADERSHIP WHICH ONLY THE U.S. SEEMS CAPABLE OF PROVIDING TO PULL OFF THIS AGREEMENT
SUCCESSFULLY.
*
"URUGUAY ROUND FAILURE WOULD BE A SLOW-MOTION DISASTER. NOTHING IMMEDIATE. NO SUDDEN JOB LOSSES. BUT A STEADY BUILD UP IN TRADE DISPUTES, TRADE HARASSMENT, INCREASED PROTECTION AND TRADE RETALIATION, CHOKING-OFF PROSPECTS OF REVIVING THE WORLD'S FLAGGING ECONOMY."
MR MILLER SAID: "THE URUGUAY ROUND IS TEETERING ON A KNIFE- EDGE. THE PROBLEM IS THIS: THE SHORT-TERM POLITICAL COSTS ARE 1MMEDIATE AND OBVIOUS; THE BENEFITS WILL TAKE LONGER TO MATERIALISE."
"TO POLITICIANS IN THE WORLD'S DEMOCRACIES THAT IS NOT EASY TO SELL. VAGUELY DEFINED PROMISES OF IMPROVEMENTS BY SOME UNSPECIFIED FUTURE DATE WEIGH LITTLE AGAINST THE PROSPECT OF JOB LOSSES IN PROTECTED INDUSTRIES SUDDENLY FACED WITH DIRECT INTERNATIONAL
COMPETITION.
/"THE URUGUAY
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