FRIDAY, MAY 28, 1993
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MR TANG SAID THE GDP AND PRICE FORECASTS FOR 1993 WERE REVIEWED INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS HAVING REGARD TO THESE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND AN UPDATE OF THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE ECONOMY.
BY
IN THE EXTERNAL SECTOR, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS IS KEPT UNCHANGED AT 1%.
DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO CHINA, WHICH ARE MOSTLY RELATED TO OUTWARD PROCESSING ACTIVITIES, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROBUST.
DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO MANY OTHER MARKETS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION SHOULD ALSO SHOW A FURTHER CONSIDERABLE INCREASE, IN LINE WITH THEIR SOLID ECONOMIC GROWTH. THESE SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET THE SLACK PERFORMANCE IN THE ESTABLISHED OVERSEAS MARKETS.
ALSO
THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF RE-EXPORTS REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 25%. THE STRONG RE-EXPORT GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER, AT ABOUT 27% IN REAL TERMS, ACCORDS WITH THIS FORECAST.
GRANTING A SATISFACTORY OUTCOME FOR THE ISSUE OF RENEWAL OF CHINA'S MOST FAVOURED NATION (MFN) STATUS IN THE UNITED STATES, RE- EXPORTS INTO AND OUT OF CHINA WHICH ARE RELATED TO OUTWARD PROCESSING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SURGE.
RE-EXPORTS INTO CHINA FOR MEETING ITS OWN DEMAND SHOULD ALSO RISE FURTHER. BUT AS CHINA IS NOW MORE LIKELY то ADOPT TIGHTER RESTRAINT MEASURES TO CURB OVERHEATING IN THE ECONOMY, THE GROWTH RATE OF THIS STREAM OF RE-EXPORTS COULD BE DAMPENED.
IF THE SLOW-DOWN TURNS OUT TO BE SIGNIFICANT THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE OF HONG KONG'S OVERALL RE-EXPORTS WOULD HAVE TO ВЕ CORRESPONDINGLY ADJUSTED.
ON TOTAL IMPORTS AND RETAINED IMPORTS, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATES IN REAL TERMS REMAIN BROADLY THE SAME AS IN THE PRECEDING ROUND, AT 18.7% AND 11.5% RESPECTIVELY.
CONSISTENT WITH THE SUSTAINED GROWTH IN OVERALL VISIBLE TRADE AND IN THE TOURIST SECTOR SO FAR THIS YEAR, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATES IN REAL TERMS OF BOTH EXPORTS OF SERVICES AND IMPORTS OF SERVICES ARE KEPT UNCHANGED, AT 9% AND 8% RESPECTIVELY.
IN THE DOMESTIC SECTOR, IN THE LIGHT OF THE STEADY INCREASE
IN CONSUMER SPENDING IN RECENT MONTHS, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, AT 7.5%, 19 MAINTAINED.
THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE IS LOWERED FROM 5% TO 4%, HAVING REGARD TO THE RECENT OUTTURN.
ON INVESTMENT, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF GROSS DOMESTIC FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION IS RAISED FROM 7.1% TO 7.6%, MAINLY ΤΟ TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE ENVISAGED FASTER INCREASE IN CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY AS WORK ON SOME MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURAL PROJECTS INTENSIFIES.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF THE GDP IS MAINTAINED AT 5.5%.
/GIVEN THE
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