THURSDAY, MAY 13, 1993
I DON'T THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT IT'S POSSIBLE BEFORE WE KNOW PRECISELY WHAT THE OUTCOME OF PRESENT DELIBERATIONS IS GOING TO BE DESIGN EXACT MEASURES WHICH WE COULD PUT IN PLACE IN ORDER TO HELP SUSTAIN OUR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN CIRCUMSTANCES OF TRADE FRICTION. BUT OBVIOUSLY WERE THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES TO ARISE WE WOULD NEED TO LOOK AT WAYS IN WHICH WE COULD GIVE GREATER ASSISTANCE TO OUR BUSINESS AND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, FOR EXAMPLE, THROUGH THE HELP THAT WE PROVIDE TO RE-TRAINING, BUT I DARE SAY IN OTHER WAYS AS WELL. BUT I DON'T THINK IT'S POSSIBLE FOR US TO HAVE IN THE WINGS, AS IT WERE, TO WHEEL ON то STAGE AT SOME APPROPRIATE MOMENT, SHOULD THAT UNFORTUNATE CIRCUMSTANCE ARISE, A PERFECTLY DESIGNED SET OF MEASURES TO SUSTAIN OUR ECONOMY IN THOSE DIFFICULT CIRCUMSTANCES.
MRS PEGGY LAM (THROUGH INTERPRETER): MR GOVERNOR, ACTUALLY MR LAU HAS REALLY ASKED SOME OF MY QUESTION. JUST NOW YOU MENTIONED THAT PROBABLY 70,000 JOBS COULD BE LOST, I'D LIKE TO KNOW WHICH SECTORS DO THESE 70,000 JOBS BELONG AND HOW DO YOU PLAN TO HELP THOSE PEOPLE WHO ARE DISPLACED BECAUSE OF THIS?
GOVERNOR: I DON'T WANT TO REPEAT TOO MUCH OF WHAT I HAVE JUST SAID. I DON'T THINK THAT PRECISION IN THESE MATTERS IN TALKING ABOUT ECONOMIC IMPACT IS POSSIBLE. WHAT THE ECONOMIC MODELLING HAS DONE IS TO GIVE US A BROAD ASSESSMENT OF THE GRAVITY OF THE SITUATION THAT WE WOULD FACE. CLEARLY JOBS WOULD BE LOST PRINCIPALLY IN THOSE SECTORS WHICH DEPEND ON EXPORT OR RE-EXPORT AND THE WHOLE COUNCIL WILL KNOW SOME OF THE SECTORS I AM TALKING ABOUT. FOR EXAMPLE TEXTILES, FOR EXAMPLE MANUFACTURE OF WATCHES, FOR EXAMPLE TOYS IF THOSE WERE SECTORS THAT WERE HIT, BUT IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW OR WHETHER THEY WOULD BE. LET ME GIVE THE HONOURABLE LADY AN EXAMPLE.
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IF CONDITIONALITY WAS TO LRAD IN A YEAR'S TIME TO THE TRIGGERING OF TRADE RESTRICTIONS BY THE UNITED STATES AND IF THOSE RESTRICTIONS WERE MODELLED ON THE PROVISIONS OF THE PELOSI AND MITCHELL BILLS, THEN THE UNITED STATES TREASURY OR THOSE WHO WORK FOR IT- AND I THINK THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE MANY MORE OF THEM WOULD HAVE TO MAKE A DECISION ABOUT WHICH CHINESE PRODUCTS WERE FROM THE PUBLIC, THE STATE SECTOR, AND WHICH WERE FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR. THE COUNCIL WILL KNOW THAT THERE IS AN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT DISTINCTION TO MAKE. THERE ARE SECTORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA WHICH REMAIN IN THE STATE SECTOR, FOR EXAMPLE ENERGY AND STEEL MANUFACTURE. DOES THAT MEAN THAT PRODUCTS WHICH REQUIRE A LARGE ENERGY INPUT OR PRODUCTS WHICH ARE MADE OF STEEL ARE PUBLIC SECTOR PRODUCTS OR PRIVATE SECTOR PRODUCTS. WHAT IS A BICYLCE MADE WITH STEEL BUT PROBABLY MANUFACTURED IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR? WHAT IS SILK? IS SILK PUBLIC SECTOR OR IS IT PRIVATE SECTOR? I THINK THAT MAKING THESE DISTINCTIONS MAY WELL LEAD TO A JOB CREATION PROGRAMME FOR THE CIVIL SERVICE. 1 CERTAINLY THINK IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT, HOWEVER WELL-MEANING THEY ARE, TO POLICE DISTINCTIONS LIKE THAT. SO WITH THAT DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IT'S QUITE DIFFICULT FOR US TO BE PRECISE ABOUT WHERE THE BIGGEST EFFECTS ON OUR OWN ECONOMY WOULD BE, BUT THAT THERE WOULD BE CONSIDERABLE EFFECTS I HAVE NO DOUBT.
/REV FUNG