10
THURSDAY, MARCH 4, 1993
QUESTION: LEAST?
FS:
QUESTION:
CAN YOU TELL ME WHERE YOU STAND ON THAT NOW, AT
WE STAND WITHOUT A CONCLUSION, I'M AFRAID.
I WOULD LIKE TO ASK MR YEUNG ONE QUESTION. THE GOVERNMENT SPENDS A LOT ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND SOCIAL WELFARE. ARE YOU WORRIED THAT IN 94-95 THEN LEGCO MEMBERS AND THE PUBLIC WILL HAVE MORE EXPECTATIONS FROM THE GOVERNMENT, MR YEUNG?
SECRETARY FOR THE TREASURY: (SJ) I DON'T THINK THIS WILL BE THE CASE. FOR THE 93-94 ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURE, THEY ARE IN LINE WITH THE GOVERNOR'S FIVE-YEAR PROGRAMME DEBATED IN OCTOBER LAST YEAR, AND THE VIEWS OF THE PUBLIC WERE REFLECTED THROUGH LEGCO MEMBERS AND I THINK MOST OF THE PUBLIC SUPPORT THIS FIVE-YEAR PROGRAMME. NOW IN PLANNING FOR THIS FIVE-YEAR PROGRAMME, WE OF COURSE HAVE TO STUDY WHETHER WE CAN AFFORD ΤΟ EXPAND THESE SERVICES, AND SO OUR ANSWER OR OUR CONCLUSION IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO AFFORD THIS COMMITMENT.
QUESTION:
YES, SOME RESPONSES, I MEAN TO YOUR BUDGET, ARE THAT YOU ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC TO THE FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF HONG KONG AND THEY ARE WORRYING ABOUT THE RESERVES, AND WHAT YOU PREDICT, IF YOU DRAW A LINE FROM TODAY TO '97 IS A DECLINING CURVE. SO DO YOU THINK IT IS тоо SENSITIVE TO DO THAT, I MEAN DURING THIS TRANSITIONAL PERIOD?
FS:
BE. TOO
WELL, WHAT WE HAVE SIMPLY USED IS THE FIVE PER CENT PER ANNUM REAL GROWTH IN GDP ASSUMPTION. WE'RE NOT TALKING ABOUT THE EXACT EXPENDITURE PROFILE BUT THE UNDERLYING ASSUMPTION IS FIVE PER CENT GROWTH IN GDP. YOU CAN ARGUE ABOUT WHETHER IT SHOULD YOU KNOW, 4.75 OR 6.25, BUT I THINK THERE AREN'T TOO MANY GUESSES FAR AWAY FROM THAT FIGURE. AS FAR AS THE CURRENT YEAR IS CONCERNED, WE ARE FORECASTING 5.5. [ HAVE SEEN FORECASTS WHICH RANGE BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6,
SO I MEAN THAT WOULD TEND TO BE THE ROUGH CONSENSUS. OF COURSE IT IS TRUE THERE ARE DOWNSIDE RISKS, AND ONE OF THE DOWNSIDE RISKS IS THAT THE GROWTH WILL BE LESS THAN THAT. BUT THAT IS WHY WE HAVE RESERVES, AND THAT IS WHY WE TRY AND KEEP AND ARE KEEPING RECURRENT EXPENDITURE UNDER CONTROL.
QUESTION
(CONT'D)
GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE MUST BE IN LINE WITH ECONOMIC GROWTH. AND CONCERNING YOUR MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST, THE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE INCREASE IS BASED ON THE INFLATION RATE, 8.5, BUT AT PRESENT OUR INFLATION RATE IS ALREADY 9.5 PER CENT, SO HAVE YOU UNDERESTIMATED THE GROWTH IN EXPENDITURE? SO MR YEUNG, WHAT DO YOU THINK, AND WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO OUR RESERVES LEVEL?
/SECRETARY FOR
+