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FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 1992
FOREIGN CURRENCY ASSETS AMOUNTED TO HK$225 BILLION OR U.S.$29 BILLION, AND RANKED 12TH IN THE WORLD.
THE GOVERNMENT ECONOMIST SAID THAT THE GDP AND PRICE FORECASTS FOR 1992 WERE REVIEWED BY INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS IN THE LIGHT OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS AND THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE ECONOMY. THE UPDATED FORECASTS ARE SHOWN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE.
IN THE EXTERNAL SECTOR, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS IS MAINTAINED AT 1.5%. THIS HAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN RECENT MONTHS, THE IMPROVED ORDERS POSITION, AND THE STEADY GROWTH IN RETAINED IMPORTS OF RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI- MANUFACTURES.
HAVING REGARD TO THE HIGHLY FAVOURABLE OUTTURN SO FAR THIS YEAR, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF RE-EXPORTS IS REVISED FURTHER UPWARDS, FROM 25% TO 27%.
WITH THE THE SATISFACTORY RESOLUTION BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA ON SECTION 301 OF THE U.S. TRADE ACT, RE-EXPORTS INVOLVING CHINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SURGE, THEREBY UNDERPINNING HONG KONG'S OVERALL RE-EXPORT PERFORMANCE. THE RAPID GROWTH IN CHINA'S IMPORTS FOR MEETING ITS OWN DEMAND SHOULD ALSO BOOST RE-EXPORTS TO CHINA.
WITH THE FORECAST OF A HIGHER GROWTH RATE OF RE-EXPORTS AND A SLIGHTLY FASTER INCREASE IN RETAINED IMPORTS FOR THE LOCAL ECONOMY THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF IMPORTS OF GOODS IS RAISED FROM 19% TO 20.3%.
GIVEN THE FASTER GROWTH IN VISIBLE TRADE AND THE SIGNIFICANT REVIVAL IN TOURISM SO FAR THIS YEAR, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATES IN REAL TERMS OF EXPORTS OF SERVICES AND IMPORTS OF SERVICES ARE LIFTED FURTHER, FROM 11% TO 12% AND FROM 10% TO 11% RESPECTIVELY.
TERMS
IN THE DOMESTIC SECTOR, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL OF PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE IS REVISED FROM 7.5% TO 8%, IN THE LIGHT OF THE FAVOURABLE OUTTURN SO FAR.
FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR, A FURTHER STEADY INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION SPENDING CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE IS RAISED FROM 6% TO 8%, MAINLY TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE FASTER INCREASE IN EXPENDITURE BY THE HOSPITAL AUTHORITY, WHICH FOR GDP ESTIMATION PURPOSES IS INCLUDED IN GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE.
AS REGARDS INVESTMENT, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF GROSS DOMESTIC FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION IS REVISED FROM 7.2% TO 6.6%. THIS WAS MAINLY DUE TO A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN EXPENDITURE ON BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION AS WELL AS IN THE REAL ESTATE DEVELOPERS' MARGIN, FROM AN INCREASE OF 2.6% TO A DECLINE OF 1.8% IN REAL TERMS, AND FROM ZERO GROWTH TO A DECLINE OF 4.5% IN REAL TERMS.
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR HAS BEEN SLACK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO IN THE SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH PUBLIC SECTOR CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY HAS IMPROVED LATELY.
IS
/ON THE