FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 1992
THE
THE
PRACTICE, UPDATED.
GOVERNMENT ECONOMIST SAID FOLLOWING THE REGULAR ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR 1992 HAD BEEN REVIEWED AND ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO CERTAIN COMPONENTS, BUT THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF THE GDP IS MAINTAINED AT 5%.
THE FORECAST OF CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION, IN TERMS OF THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (A), 18 ALSO KEPT UNCHANGED AT 9.5%.
IN THE EXTERNAL SECTOR, DOMESTIC EXPORTS ROSE BY ABOUT 1% IN REAL TERMS IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF 1992 OVER A YEAR EARLIER. THE INCREASE IN REAL TERMS FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS AS A WHOLE WAS ALSO ABOUT 1%.
DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES CONTINUED TO PICK
UP, WHILE THOSE TO CHINA RECORDED A FURTHER SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE. ON
THE OTHER HAND, DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO GERMANY AND JAPAN CONTINUED ΤΟ DECLINE.
DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAINED ON A DOWNTREND, BUT THE DECLINE HAD MODERATED SOMEWHAT IN RECENT MONTHS.
REFLECTING THE REVIVAL OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES SO FAR THIS YEAR, THE SHARE OF THIS MARKET
IN HONG KONG'S TOTAL DOMESTIC
EXPORTS ROSE TO 27% IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 26% IN THE SAME PERIOD IN 1991.
1992, FROM
RE-EXPORTS SURGED FURTHER, BY ABOUT 27% IN REAL TERMS IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF 1992 OVER A YEAR EARLIER. FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS TAKEN TOGETHER, THE INCREASE WAS ABOUT 29% IN REAL TERMS. THIS ROBUST PERFORMANCE WAS SUPPORTED BY THE CONTINUED UPSURGE IN RE-EXPORTS INVOLVING CHINA IN BOTH DIRECTIONS.
USE, COUPLED
A GREATER ABSORPTION OF IMPORTS FOR CHINA'S OWN WITH THE CONTINUED EXPANSION IN OUTWARD PROCESSING ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE BORDER, WERE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORY FACTORS.
AS RE-EXPORTS CONTINUED TO GROW AT A MUCH FASTER RATE THAN DOMESTIC EXPORTS, THE SHARE OF RE-EXPORTS IN THE VALUE OF TOTAL EXPORTS ROSE TO 74% IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 1992, FROM 69% IN THE SAME PERIOD IN 1991.
CHINA REMAINED THE LARGEST MARKET FOR AS WELL AS THE LARGEST SOURCE OF HONG KONG'S RE-EXPORTS, ACCOUNTING FOR 29% AND 61% RESPECTIVELY OF THE TOTAL VALUE OF RE-EXPORTS IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF
1992.
SUPPORTED BY THE CONTINUED SURGE IN RE-EXPORTS AND THE ROBUST DOMESTIC DEMAND, TOTAL IMPORTS SHOWED A FURTHER SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH, BY ABOUT 21% IN REAL TERMS IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF 1992 OVER A YEAR EARLIER.
RETAINED IMPORTS ALSO SHOWED A NOTABLE INCREASE, BY ABOUT 11% IN REAL TERMS. FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS TAKEN TOGETHER, TOTAL IMPORTS AND RETAINED IMPORTS ROSE BY ABOUT 22% AND 13% RESPECTIVELY IN REAL TERMS.
/AMONG THE