THURSDAY, MARCH 5, 1992
FINANCIAL
SECRETARY:
YES, BUT WHAT I AM TRYING ΤΟ GET OVER IS, ALTHOUGH FOR CONVENIENCE ONE CHOOSES THE TWO ENDS OF THE PERIOD, WE ARE ACTUALLY DEALING WITH THE WHOLE PERIOD. WE'VE GOT то GET THROUGH THOSE YEARS UP TO THE MIDDLE OF 1997, AND THAT IS WHEN WE NEED THE RESERVES.
NOW YOU ARE QUITE RIGHT, I AM NOT AT ALL DISPUTING THE FACT, THAT AS YOU GET MUCH NEARER THE END OF THAT PERIOD THE DEGREE OF RISK OF UNFORESEEN DEVELOPMENTS GETS LESS IT DOES GET LESS- BUT WE ARE NOT THERE YET, WE'RE HERE. YOU KNOW, THAT MONEY IS NOT GUARANTEED AND IN THE BANK, THAT IS MERELY A FORECAST BASED ON IF IT WAS IN THE BANK IT WOULD BE QUITE A DIFFERENT
JL
ASSUMPTIONS.
MATTER.
QUESTION:
UK AND IF I
MR MACLEOD, WHEN THE CHINA BEGAN TO NEGOTIATE THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE NEW AIRPORT, REMEMBER RIGHT, THE SUM LEFT TO THE SAR GOVERNMENT WAS EXPECTED TO BE ($5) BILLION BUT NOW YOU CAN LEAVE $71 BILLION TO THE NEW GOVERNMENT AS THE RESERVE FUND IN 1997. WHY IS THERE SUCH A BIG DIFFERENCE?
FINANCIAL SECRETARY:
WELL, I WON'T COMMENT ON A PARTICULAR FIGURE BUT I WILL MAKE A GENERAL POINT. WE ACTUALLY PUBLISH - UNTIL RECENTLY NO ONE BOTHERED READING THEM BUT WE PUBLISH IN THE BACK OF BUDGET SPEECHES, FOR VERY MANY, MANY YEARS, MEDIUM- RANGE FORECASTS, AND THEY HAVE A VERY IMPORTANT QUALIFICATION ATTACHED TO THEM WHICH IS STATED IN SMALL-PRINT, PROBABLY, SOMEWHERE, AND THAT IS THAT THEY DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FUTURE REVENUE MEASURES. SO THEY ARE FORECASTS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE THEY CAN'T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FUTURE REVENUE MEASURES. SO IF YOU COMPARE ANY FORECAST MADE TWO YEARS AGO WITH A FORECAST A YEAR LATER AND A FORECAST A YEAR AFTER THAT, YOU WILL FIND THE FIGURES ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. THAT'S ONE OF THE REASONS. THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF OTHER REASONS MAYBE INFLATION HAS CHANGED MAYBE OUR ASSUMPTION ON GROWTH HAS CHANGED. WE DO SET OUT THE MAIN ASSUMPTIONS IN THE BACK OF THE BUDGET SPEECH YOU WILL FIND THE MRF THERE. BUT THAT IS THE REASON THEY WILL CHANGE, AND I AM QUITE SURE THEY WILL GO ON CHANGING, I WON'T - BE EMBARRASSED BY THAT. I MEAN I'VE TRIED TO SET OUT IN THE BUDGET HOW WE USE THOSE FIGURES.
—
QUESTION TVB NEWS:
-
YOU ESTIMATE THAT THE INFLATION RATE WILL DROP TO 9.5% IN THE COMING YEAR, BUT THAT FIGURE TOTALLY AGREED BY MANY ECONOMISTS WHO SAY THEY DON'T SEE MANY INFLATIONARY MEASURES IN YOUR BUDGET, SO WHY ARE YOU SO CONFIDENT?
FINANCIAL SECRETARY:
IS
NOT ANTI-
THINK
WELL ACTUALLY, I DON'T THERE IS A VERY WIDE RANGE OF FIGURES PRODUCED BY ECONOMISTS OR COMMENTATORS.
MOST I DOUBT IF YOU WOULD GET A RANGE BETWEEN 9 AND 10
BEYOND SOMEWHERE MAYBE THERE IS THE ODD ONE A BIT HIGHER THAN I ENTIRELY ACCEPT THAT A FORECAST IS A FORECAST, IT
WE CAN
FORECAST
MAKE.
THAT.
IS THE
BEST
MR TANG
MIGHT
ELABORATE DECLINE.
ON A FEW FACTORS WHICH WILL HELP THE INFLATION TO
MODESTLY WANT
ΤΟ
/MR K.Y.