THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RETAINED IMPORTS OF RAW
THIRD QUARTERS, AND SEMI-MANUFACTURES IN THE SECOND AND SUGGESTS THAT A MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN THE EXPORTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER IS LIKELY.
MATERIALS HOWEVER, DOMESTIC
OF PERFORMANCE
"ALTHOUGH THE GULF CRISIS WOULD DAMPEN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN
DEMAND FOR HONG MARKETS AND RESTRAIN THEIR
KONG'S MAJOR
EXPORTS, THERE ARE POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS ON OTHER FRONTS,
NOTED.
HONG
KONG'S
MR TANG
"THE
OF RE-UNIFICATION
THB GERMANY,
BXPANSION IN OUTWARD CHINA SHOULD PROCESSING TRADE,
THE REFLATIONARY MEASURES IN AND CONTINUE TO BENEFIT HONG KONG'S DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO GERMANY AND CHINA.
EXPORTS
STATES,
UNITED
UNITED TO THE "MEANWHILE, DOMESTIC KINGDOM AND JAPAN WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SLUGGISH," HE SAID.
IN
AND RETAINED LINE WITH
RE-EXPORTS THE RECENT TRENDS IN IMPORTS, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF IMPORTS OF GOODS IS RAISED FROM 7.2 PER CENT TO 8.7 PER CENT.
THE DEMAND FOR TRADE-RELATED SERVICES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN LINE WITH THE GROWTH IN OVERALL TRADE.
BOTH INWARD
ARE EXPECTED MOREOVER,
TO AND OUTWARD TOURISM
THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN INCREASE FURTHER IN THE FOURTH QUARTER.
CENT TO REAL TERMS OF EXPORTS OF SERVICES IS THUS RAISED FROM 6 PER
CENT TO 7.5 PER CENT, AND THAT OF IMPORTS OF SERVICES FROM 7.5 PER 11.5 PER CENT.
GIVEN THESE DIFFERENTIAL RATES OF INCREASE, A DECLINE EXPORTS OF SERVICES IS FORECAST FOR THE YEAR AS A WHOLE.
IN NET
TERMS
IN THE DOMESTIC SECTOR, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL OF PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE IS REVISED UPWARD FROM 3.5 PER CENT TO 4.5 PER CENT.
CONTINUED ΤΟ CONSUMER DEMAND, PARTICULARLY FOR SERVICES, HAS
WEAK REVIVE. BUT THE CURRENT GROWTH RATE IS ALSO A REFLECTION OF THE CONSUMER SPENDING IN THE SECOND HALF OF LAST YEAR.
"THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF GROSS DOMESTIC FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION IS ALSO RAISED FROM 1.5 PER CENT TO 2.8 PER CENT, REFLECTING A STEADY INCREASE IN PRIVATE SECTOR EXPENDITURE ON BUILDING IN PLANT AND AND CONSTRUCTION AND A GRADUAL PICK-UP IN INVESTMENT MACHINERY, MR TANG SAID.
"
"HOWEVER,
CONSUMPTION
THE FORECAST GROWTH RATES OF GOVERNMENT
ON BUILDING AND EXPENDITURE, AND OF PUBLIC SECTOR EXPENDITURE CONSTRUCTION AND ON PLANT AND MACHINERY, ARE ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS, PUBLIC SECTOR CONSISTENT WITH THE GOVERNMENT'S EFFORTS TO RESTRAIN EXPENDITURE, " HE NOTED.
TURNING TO INFLATION, MR TANG SAID
PRICES
AUGUST HAS ADDED
PRODUCT PRESSURES.
SINCE
THE GLOBAL SURGE IN OIL
TO
THE LOCAL
INFLATIONARY
/"AGAINST THIS,