MONDAY, MAY 7, 1990
REPORT ON STATISTICAL PROJECTION OF MANPOWER
REQUIREMENTS AND SUPPLY
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THE GOVERNMENT HAS CARRIED OUT A STUDY ON WHETHER THE MIX OF HONG KONG'S FUTURE EDUCATIONAL OUTPUT WILL BE BROADLY IN LINE WITH THE MIX OF ITS FUTURE REQUIREMENT IN THE 1990'S.
UNDERTAKEN BY AN INTER-DEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE, THE STUDY ASSESSES THE REQUIREMENT FOR AND SUPPLY OF EDUCATED MANPOWER AT DIFFERENT EDUCATIONAL LEVELS IN TWO FORECAST YEARS 1991 AND 1996.
RELEASING THE FINDINGS OF THE STUDY AT A PRESS CONFERENCE TODAY (MONDAY), THE SECRETARY FOR EDUCATION AND MANPOWER, MR K.Y. YEUNG, EMPHASISED THAT THE STUDY WAS NOT CONCERNED WITH DETERMINING THE TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE NEEDED IN THE FUTURE LABOUR FORCE.
"THE PROJECTION IS CONCERNED ONLY WITH DETERMINING WHETHER THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A MISMATCH BETWEEN THE DEMAND FOR AND SUPPLY OF EDUCATED MANPOWER ON THE BASIS OF CURRENT AND PLANNED PROVISION EDUCATION AND TRAINING, HE SAID.
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MR YEUNG SAID PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS FROM THE STUDY SUGGESTED THAT IN 1996 THERE WOULD BE PROJECTED SURPLUSES AT SOME EDUCATIONAL LEVELS AND SHORTFALLS IN OTHERS.
"FOR EXAMPLE, SURPLUSES ARE PROJECTED AT THE LOWER SECONDARY LEVEL, THE NON-DEGREE TERTIARY EDUCATION LEVEL AND THE POST-GRADUATE LEVEL, WHILE THERE WILL BE SHORTFALLS AT THE UPPER SECONDARY, SIXTH FORM AND FIRST DEGREE LEVELS."
HE SAID THESE TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE PROVISION OF EDUCATIONAL SERVICES BUT THEY WOULD HAVE TO BE FURTHER EXAMINED BEFORE SPECIFIC PROPOSALS COULD BE FORMULATED.
"HOWEVER, THE FINDINGS OF THE STUDY UNIVERSITY AND POLYTECHNIC GRANTS COMMITTEE TRAINING COUNCIL TO ASSIST THEM IN THE REVIEW OF AND THE PLANNING OF NEW COURSES, HE SAID.
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WILL BE PUT ΤΟ THE AND THE VOCATIONAL EXISTING PROGRAMMES
"THE STUDY WILL ALSO BE UPDATED AND ROLLED OVER ANNUALLY UNDER THE DIRECTION OF THE INTER-DEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE.'
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THE TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS FROM THE STUDY FOR THE DIFFERENT EDUCATIONAL LEVELS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
LOWER SECONDARY LEVEL (UP TO SECONDARY 3):
THE PROJECTED SURPLUS OF 56,800 IN 1996 INDICATES AN ACCUMULATION OF EDUCATIONALLY UNDER-EDUCATED PEOPLE, WHO WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY REDUNDANT AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF FALLING DEMAND FOR MANPOWER WITH LOW EDUCATIONAL QUALIFICATIONS.
/THIS CONFIRMS