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THURSDAY, APRIL 20, 1989
FINALLY, DATAQUEST'S A FORECAST
OF SEMICONDUCTOR
CONSUMPTION OUTSIDE THE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD) GROUP OF COUNTRIES ASSUMED COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATES FOR THE PERIOD 1987 TO 1992 OF BETWEEN 16 PER CENT TO 20 PER CENT FOR THE ASIAN NEW INDUSTRIALISED ECONOMIES (NIEs), BUT NEARLY 48 PER CENT FOR CHINA.
THESE ASSUMED GROWTH RATES PLACED HONG KONG'S CONSUMPTION AT ABOUT US$1.2 BILLION IN 1992, WHICH PLACED THE TERRITORY IN THIRD PLACE AFTER SOUTH KOREA AND TAIWAN.
BUT MR YRUNG SAID THAT A LARGE PROPORTION OF CHINA'S CONSUMPTION OF SEMICONDUCTORS WAS CONSUMED BY MANUFACTURING BUSINESSES THAT WERE PARTLY OWNED BY HONG KONG INTERESTS, THE MARKET REPRESENTED BY HONG KONG'S TOTAL PURCHASES WAS LIKELY ΤΟ BE OF THE ORDER OF US$2.3 BILLION.
ON THESE ASSUMPTIONS, MR YEUNG EXPECTED THAT HONG PURCHASES ALONE WERE LIKELY BY 1992 то RUN CLOSE ΤΟ THE LEVEL OF CONSUMPTION BY SOUTH KOREA.
KONG'S FORECAST
ABLE TO
"IF ONE ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE ADVANTAGE OF BEING SUPPLY CHINA FROM HONG KONG, ONE WOULD BE CONSIDERING A COMBINED MARKET OF CLOSE TO US$3.6 BILLION IN 1992.
"CAN WE BE SURPRISED AT MOTOROLA'S CHOICE OF HONG KONG AS A BASE FOR EXPANSION, INSTEAD OF THE ASEAN REGION, WHERE MANY OF THE INVESTORS HAVE GONE?" MR YEUNG ASKED.
IN HIS OPINION, HONG
CONTINUE TO DIVERSIFY OUT OF
KONG'S LABOUR
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES WOULD INTENSIVE AND LOW VALUE-ADDED
PRODUCTION AND INTO MECHANISED, HIGHER QUALITY PRODUCTION.
HE FELT THE LINKAGE INDUSTRIES SHOULD DEVELOP AS HONG KONG BECAME A SUPPLY BASE FOR PRODUCTION IN CHINA AND AS A MORE SOPHISTICATED PRODUCTION CENTRE IN ITS OWN RIGHT.
"THESE TRENDS HAVE ALREADY MANIFESTED THEMSELVES IN OUR ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY, AND ARE LIKELY TO BE ACCELERATED
BY A HIGHER LEVEL OF TECHNOLOGICAL SUPPORT FROM THE GOVERNMENT, MR YEUNG SAID.
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