1
6
-
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 2, 1988
1988 TO BE YEAR OF CONSOLIDATION
HONG KONG S
ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
FOR 1988 WOULD BE ONE OF CONSOLIDATION, WITH A MORE BALANCED PATTERN OF GROWTH BETWEEN EXTERNAL AND DOMESTIC DEMAND, THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY, THE HON PIERS BUDGET TO JACOBS, SAID TODAY (WEDNESDAY) WHEN PRESENTING HIS 1988-89 THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL.
"ECONOMIC FORECASTING IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT; THIS YEAR IT 19 MADE EVEN MORE SO BY THE PREVAILING CLIMATE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE WORLD ECONOMY," HE SAID.
MR JACOBS SAID THE DEMAND FOR HONG KONG'S PRODUCTS IN MAJOR OVERSEAS MARKETS REMAINED CRUCIAL TO THE OVERALL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE.
"IN THE UNITED STATES, THE LIKELY SETBACK CARRIES WITH IT THE EXPECTATION OF ONLY A SMALL EXPORTS TO OUR LARGEST OVERSEAS MARKET.
IN CONSUMER DEMAND GROWTH IN DOMESTIC
OF OUR
"AND, LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE FORTHCOMING EXCLUSION EXPORTS FROM THE U.S. GENERALISED SYSTEM OF PREFERENCES SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT ADVERSELY OUR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN 1989.
11
"FORTUNATELY, THE OUTLOOK IS BRIGHTER FOR OUR DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO JAPAN, THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY AND THE UNITED KINGDOM, HE ADDED.
NOTWITHSTANDING CONTINUED IMPORT CONTROLS, THE RECENT GROWTH TREND IN HONG KONG'S DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO CHINA WAS STILL STRONG, ALTHOUGH SOME REDUCTION IN GROWTH DURING THE COURSE OF THIS YEAR SEEMED LIKELY A8 A RESULT OF A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT IN OUTWARD PROCESSING, MR JACOBS SAID.
THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY FORECAST AN INCREASE IN DOMESTIC EXPORTS OF SIX PER CENT, WHILE RE-EXPORTS WERE EXPECTED TO GROW BY 12 PER CENT. "TOGETHER THESE TWO FORECASTS RESULT IN A FORECAST GROWTH RATE OF NINE PER CENT FOR TOTAL EXPORTS.
•
DOMESTICALLY, HE SAID, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE WAS EXPECTED TO GROW MORE MODERATELY IN 1988, ALTHOUGH AT A HIGHER RATE THAN THAT OF GDP, LARGELY REFLECTING THE RECENT RAPID GROWTH IN INCOMES.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION WAS EXPECTED TO RISE MODERATELY WITH MOST OF.. THE GROWTH ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR, WHILE SPENDING ON PLANT AND MACHINERY WAS ALSO EXPECTED TO SHOW ONLY A MODEST INCREASE, FOLLOWING THE SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH RECORDED LAST YEAR, HE SAID.
THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY FORECAST A GROWTH RATE OF GDP FOR OF FIVE PER CENT.
988
/MR JACOBS