WEDNESDAY, JULY 16, 1986',
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BALANCING BENEFITS AGAINST PROBABILITIES
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IN SPITE OF THE APPEARANCE OF A TENABLE ECONOMIC ARGUMENT FOR THE PROPOSED NUCLEAR POWER PLANT PROJECT, PEOPLE MUST BEAR IN MIND THAT THE LOGIC OF DECISION THEORY DEMANDS WEIGHTING THE BENEFITS OF A PROJECT AGAINST ITS PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN ORDER TO DETERMINE ITS EXPECTED VALUE.
THE HON KIM CHAM MADE THIS OBSERVATION DURING THE ADJOURNMENT DEBATE ON THE DAYA BAY PLANT IN THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL TODAY (WEDNESDAY).
HE SAID THE BASIC PROBLEM IN APPLYING SUCH ANALYSIS FOR DECISION MAKING WAS THAT THE COST OF A NUCLEAR DISASTER WOULD HAVE EFFECTIVELY NULLIFIED ALL OF ITS ECONOMIC BENEFITS.
+WHILE WE ARE READY TO PLEDGE OUR FAITH IN THE COMPETENCE OF THE SCIENTISTS TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE SAFETY MEASURES AND THE LOW PROBABILITY OF A DISASTER, WE MUST RECOGNISE THAT THE DETERMINING CRITERION OF THE PROJECT ENDEAVOUR IS ITS SAFETY OUTLOOK.
+THIS LATTER ATTRIBUTE, IF ERODED OR THREATENED, COULD HAVE WIPED OUT WHATEVER ECONOMIC WORTH THAT MAY BE ATTACHED TO THE PROJECT,+ DR CHAM SAID.
TO THIS END, HE SAID THAT SENDING A DELEGATION OF LEGISLATIVE COUNCILLORS TO EXAMINE THE SAFETY ASPECTS OF NUCLEAR PLANTS IN EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA WAS CLEARLY A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
MR CHAM SAID SEVERAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS WOULD ACCRUE FROM THE PROJECT.
+ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FINANCIAL CALCULATIONS, IT IS PROBABLE BY 1996 ELECTRICITY GENERATED BY NUCLEAR POWER WILL COST 24 PER CENT LESS TO PRODUCE THAN BY WAY OF COAL FIRE, GIVEN SOME ASSUMPTION OF INFLATION IN COAL PRICES.
+ANOTHER ATTRACTION OF THE PROJECT IS THE ABILITY OF CHINA TO OBTAIN LOWER COST OF EXPORT FINANCING, HE SAID.
CURRENTLY, EXPORT CREDIT TO FACILITATE PLANT PROCUREMENT BY CHINA COULD BE MADE AT THE CREDIT COST OF 7.4 PER CENT INTEREST RATE PER ANNUM, WHILE THE COMPARABLE COSTS FOR HONG KONG WOULD BE HIGHER AT 8.75 PER CENT PER ANNUM,
MR CHAM NOTED THAT UNDER THE CONTRACT, ELECTRICITY TO BE BOUGHT FROM THE GUANGDONG NUCLEAR INVESTMENT COMPANY COULD NOT EXCEED THE COST OF COAL-BURNT ELECTRICITY FOR THE FIRST SIX YEARS THAT THE NUCLEAR PLANT OPERATED.
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