WEDNESJAY, FEBRUARY 29. 1984
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HE SAID THAT INFLATION WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OVER 10 PER CENT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE YEAR, BUT TO FALL STEADILY IN THE LATER MONTHS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STABLE EXCHANGE RATE AND LOW INFLATION RATES ELSEWHERE.
THE RATE OF FALL WOULD BE LARGELY A FUNCTION OF THE LEVEL OF THIS YEAR'S WAGE AWARDS, HE EXPLAINED.
+ THE FORECAST RATE OF INCREASE OF BOTH THE GDP DEFLATOR AND THE CONSUMER PRICE INDICES IS NINE PER CENT. AGAIN THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE, BUT WE SHALL TAKE STOCK IN SIX MONTHS' TIME, HE SAID.
SIR JOHN SAID IT REFLECTED AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE FOR 1984 AS A WHOLE - IN THE OPENING MONTHS INFLATION HAD BEEN RUNNING AT ABOUT 12 PER CENT BUT WAS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN TO ABOUT SEVEN PER CENT AT THE END.
+ONCE AGAIN THE TREND IS ALL IMPORTANT. CONSEQUENTLY THE PROGNOSIS FOR 1985 IS GOOD. AS I HAVE SAID EARLIER, POLICY MUST BE LONG-TERM AND NOT CONCENTRATED JUST ON ONE YEAR, HE SAID,
SIR JOHN SAID THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE FOR GDP THIS YEAR IN MONEY TERMS WAS THUS 16 PER CENT, AT CURRENT PRICES, PER CAPITA GDP IN 1984 SHOULD BE ABOUT $44 700 OR JUST OVER US$5 700. THE GDP ITSELF SHOULD BE ABOUT $240 BILLION.
A FORECAST GROWTH RATE OF GDP OF SIX PER CENT MIGHT SEEM SOMEWHAT DISAPPOINTING IN HISTORICAL TERMS FOR THE SECOND YEAR CF AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY BUT, IF ACHIEVED, IT WOULD REPRESENT AN EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE GIVEN THE PRESENT OVERALL SITUATION, SIR JOHN SAID.
$33.7 BILLION EXPECTED IN TOTAL COLLECTIONS
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THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY, THE HON SIR JOHN BREMRIDTE, ANTICIPATES IN HIS 1984-85 REVENUE ESTIMATES TO COLLECT A TOTAL OF $33.7 BILLION $29 BILLION IN RECURRENT REVENUE AND $4.7 BILLION IN CAPITAL REVENUE.
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+THIS DEPRESSINGLY LOW IF REALISTIC FORECAST REFLECTS THE LAGGED EFFECTS OF THE RECENT RECESSION, SIR JOHN TOLD THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL TODAY (WEDNESDAY)
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RECURRENT REVENUE AT $29 BILLION WAS ONLY $1,9 BILLION HIGHER THAN THE REVISED ESTIMATE FOR FISCAL 1983, HE SAID IN EXPLAINING THE BACKGROUND.
HE SAID THAT EARNINGS AND PROFITS TAX SHOULD YIELD JUST OVER $12,4 BILLION, OR ONLY ABOUT $840 MILLION MORE THAN THE REVISED 1983-84 ESTIMATES.
/+1 EXPECT