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MONDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 1984
IN CONTRAST TO THE FAVOURABLE BUSINESS SITUATIONS ANTICIPATED BY FIRMS IN THE MANUFACTURING' AND 'SERVICES' SECTORS, FIRMS IN THE 'CONSTRUCTION' SECTOR STILL HOLD A PESSIMISTIC VIEW ABOUT THIER IMMEDIATE BUSINESS PROSPECTS. THEY INDICATE THAT THE DOWNTREND IN CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES WILL CONTINUE AND NO SIGNS OF RECOVERY ARE EVIDENT IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1984.
IMPROVEMENTS IN BUSINESS WERE REPORTED BY FIRMS IN THE MAJORITY OF THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 1983. FIRMS IN THE 'WEARING APPAREL AND ELECTRICAL MACHINERY, APPLIANCES AND SUPPLIES' INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCED SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENTS IN BUSINESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER AND EXPECT THE FAVOURABLE BUSINESS SITUATION TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1984.
FIRMS IN THE TEXTILES', 'ELECTRONICS' AND WATCHES AND CLOCKS' INDUSTRIES ALSO EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT UPTURN IN BUSINESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER BUT THEY EXPECT SOME DECLINE IN BUSINESS IN THE FIRST QUARTER, DUE MAINLY TO SEASONAL FACTORS. IN CONTRAST, FIRMS IN THE 'FOOD, BEVERAGE AND TOBACCO INDUSTRY REPORTED A DETERIORATION IN BUSINESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER WITH LITTLE PROSPECT OF IMPROVEMENT. FIRMS IN THE 'PLASTICS' INDUSTRY ALSO EXPERIENCED NO IMPROVEMENT IN BUSINESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PROSPECTS FOR THE FIRST QUARTER.
AS FOR THE 'CONSTRUCTION' SECTOR, THE DETERIORATION IN BUSINESS CONTINUED TO AFFECT FIRMS IN THIS SECTOR IN THE FOURTH QUARTER AND THIS SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE FIRST QUARTER, FIRMS IN WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE' ACHIEVED SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BUSINESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER AND EXPECT THAT THEIR PERFORMANCE IN THE FIRST QUARTER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED.
RESPONDENTS IN THE 'RESTAURANTS' SECTOR REPORTED LITTLE CHANGE IN BUSINESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER AND EXPECT SOME DECLINE IN BUSINESS FOR THE FIRST.
SEEN FROM HISTORICAL TRENDS, THE RESTAURANT BUSINESS APPEARED TO HAVE HAD A RATHER UNFAVOURABLE FOURTH QUARTER. PROBABLY BECAUSE THE FOURTH QUARTER BUSINESS LEVEL DID NOT ACHIEVE ITS USUAL IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE THIRD QUARTER, THE SEASONAL DECLINE FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1984 WAS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIAL. FIRMS IN THE HOTELS' SECTOR ACHIEVED A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN BUSINESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER BUT EXPECT A SEASONAL DROP IN BUSINESS FOR THE FIRST QUARTER.
FIRMS IN THE OTHER SERVICES' SECTOR RECORDED A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN BUSINESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, AND EXPECT
IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN BUSINESS FOR THE FIRST QUARTER. PARTICULAR, 'BANKS' EXPERIENCED A SHARP BUSINESS RECOVERY IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, AND ARE VERY CONFIDENT OF FURTHER ADVANCES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER. SIGNIFICANT BUSINESS UPTURN WAS ATTAINED BY THE 'TRANSPORTATION' BUSINESS AND A STABLE OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST QUARTER.
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