FRIDAY, MAY 20, 1983
JB1
HE:
BUT IF THERE WERE A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT?
WELL, I THINK THAT THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT ANY GOVERNMENT IN UK WOULD NOT HAVE THE SAME OBJECTIVE AS I HAVE JUST STATED.
J31 YOU HAVE SAID THAT YOU WILL GO TO PEKING YOURSELF TO JOIN IN THE TALKS WHEN THE TIME IS APPROPRIATE HAVE YOU ANY IDEA WHEN THAT TIME IS GOING TO CONE? I MEAN, WHEN ARE HE GOING TO SEE AN APPROPRIATE TINE FOR DEFINITIVE DISCUSSIONS?
HE: WELL, I DON'T THINK THAT YOU LINK NE WITH A PARTICULAR FORM OF SUBSTANCE OF THE DISCUSSIONS. I THINK AGAIN - KEEP IN MIND AS I SAID I THINK, A LITTLE WHILE 36CK, THERE IS IN PEKING AN ANBASSADOR, SIR PERCY CRADOCK HHO IS A VERY EXPERIENCED MAN IN THESE MATTERS. HE KNOWS HONG KONG HELL, HE HAS BEEN TO HONG KONG. HE CAME DOWN YOU MAY RECALL WITH THE PRIME MINISTER. HE CAME DOWN WITH LORD BELSTEAD AND HE CAME THROUGH WITH ME THE OTHER DAY, HE IS IN VERY CLOSE TOUCH WITH US AND I AM ALWAYS IN VERY CLOSE TOUCH WITH HIM. SO THERE IS THERE ALREADY AN EXPERIENCED NEGOTIATOR, AND AS TO WHEN I WILL GO I CAN'T GIVE YOU AN EXACT DATE BUT ANY IDEA THAT I AM NOT GOING I THINK YOU CAN BISNISS I KNOW THERE ARE ALL SORTS OF STORIES AROUND AFOUT WHETHER 1 SHALL BE ACCEPTABLE OR UNACCEPTABLE. I KNOW OF NO SUBSTANCE FOR THOSE STORIES AND YOU MAY TAKE IT THAT THE TIME WILL COME WHEN YOU WILL SEE ME IN PEKING.
JI SO, IT COULD BE THIS YEAR?
HE: OH INDEED, YES.
J
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT, YOU HAVE BLAMED THE DRASTIC FALL IN THE HONG KONG DOLLAR ON THE STRENGTH OF THE AMERICAN DOLLAR: DON'T YOU THINK THAT 1997 HAS A GREAT DEAL TO DO WITH THIS – THE UNCERTAINTY AND UNEASE AKONG PEOPLE?
HEI WELL, THE HONG KONG DOLLAR IS A FUNCTION BASICALLY, OF THE MARKET. THIS IS A FREE AND OPEN MARKET WHERE PEOPLE CAN MOVE INTO CURRENCIES AND OUT OF CURRENCIES, AND THE RATE OF EXCHANGE IS AFFECTED BY SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND OBVIOUSLY, THE SUPPLY OVER RECENT BAYS OR WEEKS HAS BEEN GREATER THAN THE DEMAND, AND WITH THAT THE EFFECT OF THE DOLLAR HAS HEAKENED, BUT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS ON THIS, AND I AM NOT GOING TO TRY TO IDENTIFY THE WEIGHT OF EACH INDIVIDUAL FACTOR IN THAT CALCULATION, BECAUSE I THINK IT WOULD BE FOOLISH TO DO SO. SOME OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE TEMPORARY BUT WHAT I WOULD SAY IS THIS, THAT I BELIEVE THAT THERE IS AN UNDERLYING STRENGTH IN THE HONG KONG ECONOMY, THAT THAT STRENGTH IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THROUGH AND PROVIDING EVERYBODY IS SENSIBLE, I SEE NO REASON WHY IT SHOULD NOT IMPROVE THE EXCHANGE RATE. AFTER ALL. THE MAIN DETERMINANT IS THE MARKET BUT THE GOVERNMENT IS IN CLOSE AND CONSTANT TOUCH WITH THE MRIN INSTITUTIONS IN THE MARKET, AND I SAY IF PEOPLE ACT IN A GOOD AND SENSIBLE MANNER, I THINK THERE IS NO REASON FOR THEM TO GET UNDULY PESSINISTIC.
JRI BUT JESPITE UNDERPINNING BY THE GOVERNMENT, THE RATE HAS FALLEN BELON 7 SD THINGS ARE FAIRLY SERIOUS FOR THE DOLLAR?
/HE: WELL,