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WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 1982
REBASING TO 1981 OF HONG KONG IMPORT AND EXPORT
UNIT VALUE AND QUANTUM INDEXES
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THE JULY 1982 ISSUE OF THE HONG KONG MONTHLY DIGEST OF STATISTICS, WHICH IS NOW ON SALE, CONTAINS A SPECIAL ARTICLE ON + THE REBASING TO 1981 OF HONG KONG IMPORT AND EXPORT UNIT VALUE AND QUANTUM INDEXES+.
BEFORE 1982, THE UNIT VALUE AND QUANTUM INDEXES WERE BASED ON 1973. FROM 1973 TO 1981, SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS TOOK PLACE IN THE WORLD MARKET, IN THE DIRECTION AND COMPOSITION OF WORLD TRADE, IN THE SOPHISTICATION OF GOODS TRADED, AND IN THE PRICE STRUCTURE. TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THE CHANGED TRADING ENVIRONMENT AND TO ENHANCE THE USEFULNESS OF THESE TRADE INDEXES, IT WAS CONSIDERED NECESSARY TO RE-BASE THE TRADE INDEXES FROM 1973 TO 1981 WITH EFFECT FROM THE JANUARY 1982 INDEX NUMBERS.
TO MEASURE ANY CHANGE IN TRADE VALUE IN REAL TERMS, IT IS NECESSARY TO ANALYSE HOW MUCH OF THE CHANGE CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A CHANGE IN PRICE AND HOW MUCH IS DUE TO A CHANGE IN VOLUME. BY COMPILING UNIT VALUE AND QUANTUM INDEXES TO REFLECT THE PRICE AND VOLUME MOVEMENTS OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND RE-EXPORTS, MORE IN-DEPTH ANALYSES AND ASSESSMENTS CAN BE MADE OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE ECONOMY.
THE UNIT VALUE INDEX IS A CHAINED LASPEYRES INDEX, COMPARING THE CURRENT PERIOD UNIT VALUES OF THE SELECTED ITEMS WITH THE IR AVERAGE UNIT VALUES IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR, USING THE PREVIOUS YEAR'S TRADE VALUES AS WEIGHTS, AND CHAINED TO THE BASE YEAR BY THE PREVIOUS YEAR'S UNIT VALUE INDEX. THE QUANTUM INDEX IS DERIVED BY DEFLATING THE VALUE INDEX BY THE UNIT VALUE INDEX. HENCE IT IS A PAASCHE INDEX, COMPARING THE CURRENT PERIOD TRADE VOLUME WITH THE AVERAGE BASE YEAR TRADE VOLUME.
FOR THE PURPOSE OF COMPILING TRADE INDEXES, OVERALL DOMESTIC EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND RE-EXPORTS ARE DISAGGREGATED INTO MAIN-CLASSES AND SUB-CLASSES, SUCH AS EXPORTS OF CLOTHING AND IMPORTS OF FOODSTUFFS. MONTHLY INDEXES ARE COMPILED FOR THESE MAIN-CLASSES AND SUB-CLASSES AND THEY ARE AGGREGATED TO FORM THE OVERALL INDEXES. THERE ARE ALSO NINE SETS OF COUNTRY INDEXES, FOUR FOR THE MAIN EXPORT MARKETS AND FIVE FOR THE MAIN SUPPLYING COUNTRIES. THESE COUNTRY INDEXES SERVE AS INDICATORS OF THE PERFORMANCE AND THE PATTERN OF HONG KONG'S BILATERAL TRADE WITH INDIVIDUAL MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS.
IN CONNECTION WITH THE REBASING OF THE TRADE INDEXES, TWO AREAS OF IMPROVEMENT WERE EXAMINED, FIRSTLY, THE BASKET OF COMMODITIES SELECTED FOR COMPILING TRADE INDEXES WAS REVIEWED, AND SECONDLY, THE DISAGGREGATION OF THE OVERALL INDEXES INTO MAIN-CLASSES AND SUB-CLASSES WAS REVISED, SO AS TO IMPROVE THE RELIABILITY AND REPRESENTATIVENESS OF THE TRADE INDEXES.
IN ADDITION,