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WEDNESDAY, MAY 5, 1982
AND THERE WAS NO INDICATION OF ANY EASING IN THE HIGH GROWTH RATE OF VEHICLES.
INDEED, IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS PRIVATE CARS HAD GROWN AT THE RATE OF OVER 13 PER CENT PER ANNUM.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUED UNRESTRAINED, THERE WOULD BE WELL OVER 300 000 CARS ON THE ROADS BY 1987. BY 1991, THIS COULD REACH 400 000 OR EVEN MORE.
+THESE FIGURES ARE, SIMPLY, FRIGHTENING, AND THE EFFORTS OF CERTAIN PEOPLE TO REDUCE THE IR PRESENT OR FUTURE SIGNIFICANCE CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED AS SPITTING IN THE WIND, HE SAID.
MR SCOTT SAID THE 1976 COMPREHENSIVE TRANSPORT STUDY HAD PROJECTED THAT HONG KONG COULD COPE WITH A RESTRAINED GROWTH RATE IN PRIVATE CARS OF FIVE PER CENT PER ANNUM.
THIS WOULD HAVE PRODUCED BY THE BEGINNING OF 1982 SOME 169 000 CARS. IN FACT, BY THE END OF MARCH THERE WERE 217 000 REGISTERED CARS -- NEARLY 50 000 MORE THAN THE LEVEL CONSIDERED AS ACCEPTABLE IN 1973 EQUIVALENT CONGESTION TERMS. IN ADDITION, THERE WERE 28 000 MOTORCYCLES.
THIS ENORMOUS GROWTH RATE, SAID MR SCOTT, WAS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF HONG KONG, A LEVEL OF GROWTH WHICH NO ONE WOULD HAVE PREDICTED IN THE POST-1973 RECESSION PERIOD, WHEN THE CONSULTANTS WERE WORKING.
IN BROAD TERMS, THE NUMBER OF VEHICLES HAD GROWN AT AN ANNUAL RATE OF 8.4 PER CENT FROM 1971 TO 1981, WHILE ROAD CAPACITY OVERALL HAD INCREASED BY NOT MORE THAN THREE PER CENT PER ANNUM.
IN THAT PERIOD, TOTAL REGISTERED VEHICLES INCREASED FROM 125 000 TO 330 000, WITH PRIVATE CARS RISING FROM 80 000 TO OVER 211 000.
A FREQUENT CRITICISM, MR SCOTT NOTED, WAS THAT AN INADEQUATE ROAD DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR TROUBLES.
+EVEN IF THE INCREASE IN TRAFFICABLE ROADS HAD BEEN TWICE THAT ACHIEVED, HE SAID, THE GROWTH RATE OF VEHICLES WOULD STILL BE WELL ABOVE THE LEVEL REQUIRED TO MAINTAIN CONGESTION AT 1973 LEVELS.+
BROADLY SPEAKING, IF THE NUMBER OF PRIVATE CARS WERE TO REACH 400 000 IT WOULD BE NECESSARY TO DUPLICATE MUCH OF THE EXISTING URBAN AREA MAJOR ROAD NETWORK.
+THIS WOULD REQUIRE THE DOUBLE DECKING OF MILES AND MILES OF EXISTING ROADWAY, AND THE WHOLESALE DEMOLITION OF PRIVATE PROPERTY, HE SAID. THE GOVERNMENT DID NOT SEE THIS AS A REALISTIC PROPOSITION.
MR SCOTT EMPHASISED THAT THE GOVERNMENT'S SUBSTANTIAL PROGRAMME OF ROAD BUILDING WOULD CONTINUE.
/SEVERAL LARGE