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+MY FOURTH AREA RELATES TO ESTATE DUTY.
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 1982
FIRSTLY I PROPOSE
TO RAISE THE EXEMPTION LIMIT FROM $1 MILLION TO $2 MILLION. SECONDLY I PROPOSE TO INTRODUCE A NEW SCHEDULE RANGING FROM 10 PER CENT ON ESTATES BETWEEN $2 MILLION AND $2.5 MILLION TO 18 PER CENT ABOVE $4 MILLION. THIRDLY I PROPOSE TO EXEMPT FROM DUTY ALTOGETHER THE PRINCIPAL MATRIMONIAL HOME WHEN THE DECEASED LEAVES A SURVIVING SPOUSE.
*THE COST TO THE REVENUE OF MY TAX CONCESSIONS WILL BE NEARLY $1.4 BILLION. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND OF THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE CAPITAL WORKS RESERVE FUND ESTIMATE THAT THE SURPLUS FOR NEXT YEAR WILL BE ABOUT $2.3 BILLION. THIS IS SUBJECT TO SOME MARGIN OF ERROR IN THE LIGHT OF FUTURE ESTIMATED LAND SALES PRICES, NOT LEAST BECAUSE SOME OF THE SITES ARE VERY LARGE.
+LET ME TURN NOW BRIEFLY TO WHERE I THINK OUR ECONOMY WILL GO IN 1982. I MUST REMIND YOU THAT THE WORLD IS IN AN UNSETTLED STATE, AND THAT OUR VARIOUS OVERSEAS MARKETS ARE UNPREDICTABLE. I BELIEVE, HOWEVER, THAT OUR DOMESTIC EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AT SEVEN PER CENT IN REAL TERMS AND THE GDP AT EIGHT PER CENT, THAT THE RATE OF INCREASE IN THE GDP DEFLATOR WILL DROP TO NÍNE PER CENT, THAT THE RATE OF INFLATION AS PORTRAYED BY THE CONSUMER PRICE INDICES WILL FALL TO 12 PER CENT, THAT GDP PER HEAD WILL EXCEED $30 000 - A CONSIDERABLE FIGURE BY WORLD STANDARDS - AND THAT OUR EMPLOYMENT SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
+LET ME ADD FINALLY THAT I AM VERY AWARE OF THE DANGERS OF ATTEMPTING TO FORECAST THE FUTURE. TO SOME EXTENT WHAT I HAVE INDICATED REPRESENTS ONLY GUESS WORK, BUT LEAST BECAUSE IT IS SO DEPENDENT ON FACTORS WHICH ARE TOTALLY OUTSIDE OUR CONTROL. BUT IT IS AN INTELLIGENT FORECAST BASED ON ALL INFORMATION AVAILABLE, AND I HOPE THAT IT MAY BE ACCOMPLISHED.+
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